Tuesday, December 2, 2014

End Of November Macro Stats (Updated 12-4-14)

A quick look at the chart belows sees an off production month for Boeing with only six 787 delivered. Will they make its goal in 2014 for 110 787's? Here is the pent up factory backlog in forward position for delivery. Starting with two 787 already delivered in December knocking down the goal to 12 to go. Here is the backlog energy in waiting on a short production Month with Christmas, vacations and New Years eve.

Delivery waiting for customers (4 more Dec). They should deliver as they were ready in November, meeting a goal of 10 in the first two weeks weeks of December.

Production testing maturity before "Ready for Delivery" status- 10, 787

5 aircraft have 3-5 tests flights already, and can be ready for delivery by the 10th of this month as my own prediction.

5 aircraft each have one test flight and its feasible for December delivery.

Customer hesitation on its own financing, or quality inspections with a Boeing remedy could cause problems for Boeing, as it may roll a few deliveries into January per customer direction. However its possible for Boeing reaching its January 2014 goal of delivering 110 787 aircraft in 2014. It is equally possible Boeing will fall just short of the goal with units standing at 100% completion on the 2014 flight line, but delivered in January of 2015.

Goal +/-                          *09/2014    **10/2014         Projecting    November  (actual) Delta 
Month Deliveries              10            **11             10              6.0                     -4
3 M-M-avg                      10.33          11.33            10             9.0                     -1.0
Production Goal               10               10              10             10                          0
Delivery Trend (+/- )       + .33            +1.33                   . 0            -1.0      /Target       >                
                                       *PM-Start      **M.A.P.                         PM-End
*Progression Months
**Moving Average Progression

Other Notes on the 787 Production analysis.

Total Year To Date 787:   98 (2 December deliveries already counted)
2014 Goal                       110
One Month Goal               14
Net to go in December     12