Thursday, November 13, 2014

The Long Thin Lines Of Aviation's Gold Rush is Turning to Panning

The advent of the 787 was an immediate impact on airline groups bottom line. It was like California in 1849 picking up gold nuggets off the ground, before the swell of miners came to the Gold fields. Then came the placer mines and the gold panning. California played out in a few years. The 787 routes are those long thin routes which are the nuggets laying on the ground. As Airbus brings another shipload of like designed aircraft to the market, Boeing hopes its customers have filled the lucrative long thin routes with the 787.

The panning phase of aviation's gold is about to start with a glut of super efficient market dredges washing the airports clean of its gold. Will the gold run out? Not as long as there are people who kept needing new zip codes to go to on their todo's list. But Boeing got in early, and its customers are are riding the limited point to point and lucrative prime routes. Airbus product will try and muscle in on those routes (claim jumping) at first, and then retreat to the non extended distance routes, as it will have to utilize its Airbus equipment more modestly. The early birds got the worm. ANA, JAL, and others have tied up regions of the globe with the 787 on those special routes. Tokyo to Boston, and the West Coast of the US to China to name a few. There are still a few nuggets out there, but by the time Airbus delivers its first hundred, Boeing will have 400 787's Airborne.

Phase two of Aviation's renaissance is the placer mining era which should start in about three years when Boeing delivers its 500th 787. This will be followed later, by secondary market panning for Gold efforts. That last group will seek handy point to point three hour flights. Already there is a strong presence in that area. In the middle east, Qatar has purposed its 787 flights to the region and Europe as it pans for gold in exclusive routes. London, Frankfort, and Paris to name a few. The 787 Back fill on opportunity is beating the A-350 to the market by almost four years. Time is gold in this case. Staking a claim is 9/10th's of the law. The wide body rush has just started now that Airbus is setting its first delivery soon.