Friday, August 15, 2014

Fleet Dichotomy Watching Means 777X Is In.

What is "out" is an important trend. What is "in" , signals that event. What is "meant", falls below in the succeeding paragraphs. A little new snippet came out today, which makes one ponder about what is really happening in the airline industry. It's about BA receiving its next 777-300 ER. Good catch BA. Right there in the article is a dichotomy of fleet. An important trend for mega airlines. There are two classes of airlines in the world with subsets. One is the mega carriers, the other is everybody else. Mega carriers spawn out of the middle east like oil wells. Where national legacy airlines are that subset of mega carriers such as BA, Lufthansa and United as exampled. The "others", would include; substantial upstarts, "wanna be airlines", and emerging airlines. I won't name a few, you do the work. 

What comes from this article below are clues:
15 Aug 2014

On Wednesday night (August 13th), a new Boeing 777-300ER became a part of the British Airway fleet, as it was delivered to the airline.

The twelfth 777-300ER to join BA touched down in Heathrow on the 13th and only a few hours afterwards was on its way to Mumbai.

"I think this aircraft is vitally important for the fleet, it's a wonderful aircraft - pilots love it, it is very fuel efficient and hugely comfortable for customers," chief Boeing pilot at BA, Allister Bridger, has said.

BA now has 58 Boeing 777 planes in its fleet, more than the number of Boeing 747-400s it has (48).

BA did at one point have 57 Boeing 747-400s, yet it has now started retiring its fleet of this sort of plane, putting Boeing 777, Boeing 787 and Airbus A380 planes in the place of the aircraft it retires.
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The dichotomy shift comes in the last few sentences. Boeing has shored up its right sized jumbo fleet with the 777X's family. It's twin engine as mini Jumbos, that will erode both the A380 and A350-1000 potential markets. It also spells retirement for the 747. The 777X-9 will do the job of the 747-400, only more efficiently than either the 747-8I or the A380. 

The question for most mega airlines or emerging airline is; Do you really need to fill 525 passenger every time you fly when making money? The answer is a strong no! The 747-400 that BA is retiring in an on-going scheduled event, and will be replaced by 777-300ER's, which carry about the same number of tickets sold on an average for a 747-400 flight. BA will gain extreme efficiency on the 777-300ER by doing so at this time. Bank those immediate savings for future 777-300ER purchases or later for 777X-9 acquisitions if it follows through on the 777 type. No need for super jumbos at this time when the heart of its business plan and airport compliance's are set around the 360 seat mark. The 777X will come just-in-time as populations and business grows steady in the next 20 years. 

The A-380 is that one-off dichotomy decision. A useful attention get-er and option. It doesn't have purchasing continuity, even with its own family of aircraft. Refer to the Emirates cancellation of 70 A350's. Emirates has heavily purchased both the 777's and A380's. Boeing has filled a purchasing and seating continuity with its own 787 and 777 combined with the A-380. Both are better options than the A350. The market has paused and is dithering on the A350 market preference.

BA has measured it potential market, age of equipment, and its 747's in service. It has come with an easily achievable plan, in the making, with the 787, 777 types, and A380's. The only problem is that the A380 will exhaust early its airport potentials, where the 777 will continue to fit in the airports long after the A380 has saturated its own market. Airports can't just expand on a $dime, nor do they always have the space to expand. Airport status quot is what Boeing is banking on with the 777 types. So far they guessed right on that move, where Airbus bet the farm on "if they build it, airports will expand for "it"" (being the A380). Only desert kingdoms have the space and money for "it".

Finally, the A380, is really Boeing's step child within this news report.