Friday, May 30, 2014

May Three Month Moving Average 787 Line.

May Three Month Moving Average(3MMA) 787 Line. 

3MM average                      

Goal +/-                          03/2014    04/2014          Projecting      May (actual)  Delta 
Month Deliveries              10               8             10              10                     2   
3 M-M-avg                          6.0             7.33           9.33          8.33               2
Production Goal               10              10.             10               10                    0
Delivery Trend (+/- )       -4.0            -2.67                    -.67             -1.67                 2                
                                       *PM-Start          M.A.  P                               PM-End
*Progression Month

The 90 day segment of delivery, which smooths all bumps, surges and customer cash flows during production has arrived for May. It was projected in April that the over-all delivery schedule would end up close to ten month for ninety days. It is an Indicator of Boeing's Airplane parking lot for keeping pace with production. A good sign that bean counters were pushing the production doers of good deeds towards making significant headway towards its arbitrary goal of filling ten parking spaces a month on the flight-line.

This chart is the all important happenings as 2014 strives towards meeting its promise of 110 787's this year including interference from introduction of the 787-9. This is quite a feat introduction a model within the same production line and making delivery during test operations of undelivered 787-9 in that same test program. Resources are spent on such, an endeavor, yet production will meet its goal and receipts numbers will blossom from the flight-line. Its a cool thought if you are an investor. I am not saying there are not some remaining gremlins hiding out beyond Boeing's oversight, but that gate is nearly closed on mishaps in the field. The 98 % reliability margin is truly a promise realized for its customers as millions board the 787's in the next few years.  The 787 value starts during production and ends on customers bottom line. No one likes to share its secret for success as competitors would clone that secret for its own operation. However, the 787 is that 800 pound Gorilla sitting in the terminal and everybody notices it.

Boeing is sharing the news with all prospective customers about the virtues of the 787. Skittish customers are now listening.  Once again, I repeat the theme, that 2015 will be an order year for the 787 family of aircraft, replacing this years delivered slots at the back of the shortened line. The A350 has struggled as well as Boeing at the starting point. Those watchers and waiters of airline progress think Airbus is on pace except they fail to notice its been awhile since Airbus started on the A350. Boeing opened its big mouth in 2007 and couldn't and shouldn't deliver then. It took five years to fly it to customers. How long has it been for Airbus? Five years with a less formidable aircraft, however, they didn't brag at the onset of of the project so everything is normal for all to remark.

Production and delivery dynamics are is the continuum measures for solved problems and success full words spoken. people only look at results not promised announcements of hope and change. The Change has occurred and the results are coming in. It wasn't and isn't easy, but Boeing is in a better situation, towards its Break-even analysis event than it was last year at this time. I believe that 2017 is still the bench mark year for unit profitability when it flys its 500th 787 in late 2017 or early 2018. The 10 a month delivery will creep towards 12 a month delivery by 2016 for the full year.  Completing 150 builds and delivery by that time.  Charleston becomes a full production partner in 2015-2016 nearer its true production potential.

All I have to do is wait for two more deliveries in May and this chart above is valid! If not, oh well, this is a fun Blog about the 787 and other things Boeing.

Thursday, May 29, 2014

ZB003 First Boeing/AirNewzealand Production Test Flight

  • Under the news radar flies Air New Zealand first flight, to-be-delivered 787-9.
  • Its The All Black Beauty
  • The undomitable 787-9
  • Just a few more weeks of Boeing flights and then a few Customer flights.
  • Then its all Air New Zealand's.
  • Worth the wait? Yeah, happy June!

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

The 787 Magnum 330 Round is Chambered

The five and a half hour no airport zone is a turn in the 787 fortunes. The NTSB have approved, certified and stamped the 787 out of the  the three hour no land zone giving it two and a half hours more of Ocean and Land, straight line flying time. Trans Pacific, Polar and any other route has legs beyond the vision on all passengers with the approval of the NTSB. Remember these officials who recently said the battery has not been adequately tested since no causal affect for heat runaway has been determined. It needs more testing! Boeing through its own admission already stated this in front of the world in the first place, and has addressed the issue for its ground purposed battery system containment during flight. Using a  steel encasement and system for venting gases, making it virtually imposible of fire or toxins in cabin at 40,000 feet or on the ground. The only thing that damages is the unessessry inflight batteries inside the box. The 787 keeps flying or sits on the ground with out any collateral damage. The NTSB recognises this even though it has rquested more testing on the battery causal affect of runaway battery thermal event.

On to the magnum 330 ETOPS, being the next milestone for the 787. Where the same governing body for the battery failure, NTSB,  has just awarded the 787 a 330 minute crown of independence when it flys anywhere in the world, instead of just 180 minutes fly over space. This means Boeing customers can now draw more straight lines on the map from origin to destenation, saving copiuos quantities of fuel each time passengers desires a trip to anywhere on the planet. Apparently, Boeing 787 customers now have the Magum 330 in Boeing's own flight bag, just as Jason's  and his Aeronaughts have the Golden Fleece. Airbus of course, would want to disagree with its own A350 rapidly approaching entry into service. They would want to complain in keeping with its own delusional press brefings. The 330 ETOPs extends the range of efficiency, cuts time and cost for its customers. Follow-on orders will come forth from fence sitting corporate prospectus. Especially from the purpose driven vacation Airlines that would order a half dozen of this type during a fleet expantion period. The example is, TUI.  Vacation and Business travel, or demographiclly inclined airlines, can now step forward and ask for the 330 Magnum (ETOPs) 787.

This makes 2015 the seminl year as it turns the corner on production efficiency, the reorder and first time orders numbers, and gaining sepertion from its competitor as a difference maker. Airbus will want to complain about that too.

Thursday, May 22, 2014

One More Time With The 787 Battery Is The NTSB Call

In 2013 the FAA and Boeing partnered together seeking solutions for its Lithium -Ion battery. However, the NTSB in now asking Boeing to back to the drawing table Because Testing:

  • Did not exceed harsh enough conditions to replicate a battery fire.
  • Did not put pre damaged cells into the test with flight/operational conditions
  • Did not find the limit where runaway battery would occur
However, Boeing and its battery maker could not find causal conditions where run-away battery meltdown would occur. They only addressed prevented catastrophic battery failure and the protection of the 787, where it could continue to fly safely any where in the world. Boeing and its mentors, partners and consultants made the 787 runaway battery risk adverse for the long haul, even if a battery fire did occur.

The NTSB would like causal testing on the battery. Back in 2013, it was stated that finding the problem would have infinite implications in recreating thermal runaway during operations. The NSTB would like this done by the manufacturers at this time as stated in a letter to sent to all parties including the FAA.

  • What causes the battery to runaway during operations.
  • Testing the battery components during operational conditions
  • Go beyond lad and bench testing to find the causal limits where battery fire occur.
  • Quantify and rectify the battery problems under robust testing.
In other words the NTSB wants to know from Boeing who could not find the causal problem in the first go around with runaway battery fires, Find and Fix it. This is like hunting for the Seven Cities of Gold in the Southwest. In Brigadoon once every 100 years a battery fire occurs, But the NTSB wants answers for this perplexing problem.

The only answer may be the new advances on the Lithium-Ion Battery that researchers are making towards completely stabilizing the battery matrix it has recently discovered in the lab. If they can demonstrate a commercial breakthrough with this New type of Li battery, it would be the best route for Boeing to take, installing an all new Li onto the 787, where it can't overheat or rupture as this new type was recently discovered in the the science world. The old Li battery is like chasing ghost, as Boeing had concluded where they moved in the direction of containment and safety in case of fire. The batteries are used only when the engines are not on. A scary thought if both engines quit mid air and the battery catches fire. There is still a third system in place during crises from ram air power on the electrical system. Then the airplane can be guided using a non battery source. 

The NTSB would like the battery problem to go away, since Boeing carries that battery. Even though the battery its not the way that the Boeing 787 does fly, because it does not necessarily use battery power for systems during flight. Its primarily used on the ground in stationary or static operations. Hence the battery fires while on the ground. NTSB is trying to make Boeing find and arrest battery pookas (ghost) at this time with real time testing under stress of operations. Find and Fix is the decal on the side of each battery pack just like a police badge motto.

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Nok Airlines Made Me Look

Boeing finalised the Nok order today with these crazy  birds. 737 Max and NG for 15.

The Cement has Set On The 787-8

In construction it takes more than  24 hrs to set the cement. Sometimes it takes much longer depending on cement formula and weather. Until its completely set its called green cement. The Boeing 787-8 has been in the green state since 2011. The year 2014 is the green test period where it will determine if all systems are set in concrete. A list of problems, issues and mishaps would bore most to list the items. However the following points are set from this point forward and are no longer considered green cement. They are Boeing 787-8 Cemented List

  • Battery System
  • Brakes Systems
  • Software Configurations
  • Production Techniques Cemented
  • Electric, electronics, and electricity is in a solid state
  • Engines and so forth
The Boeing 787-8 is free to produce at a top rate. Now the 787-9 is going forward with a few greened areas waiting for curing. Laminar flow is one such green aberration. It has not been announced how its affecting the efficiency of the airplane in straight numbers, as compared with the 787-8. I am excited to find out what difference does it make. The 787-8 is not waiting to find out, since its casting is removed and stands alone as the feature bird, the world is now experiencing. Those early glitches cost Boeing dearly paid for in both cash and reputation, as it tries to retire 23 Billion on the Stock-Holder Tab and customers feel more comfortable moving forward. The raves keep coming through on how it has changed airline bottom lines every time it launches with a payload. Only if Boeing could share that excitement towards its own bottom lime, but that is coming, only if Boeing keeps executing the plan. They are great at the rinse and repeat cycle of airplane building once the the cement is set and no longer green.

Boeing has a five year plan and a 10 year forecast. Each year that 5 year plan is updated by adding the next year on and dropping last year goals from the plan. The front office is good doing that. Its the on the fly adjustments used for any project keeping the plan intact. That is where unplanned cash needs are discovered. The 787-9 has had a practically flawless test series that is closing this month where the 787-9 will be made ready for Air New Zealand in June. It is more of a testament from the 787-8 program and its greening to cement process that the 787-9 owes its success. The 787-9 test program is a reflection of everything accomplished on the 787-8 project. Dittos for the 787-10. Everybody will want to save a place in line soon as this family is about to rock the world with a standing ovation performance. Everything Boeing eagerly spoke about in 2007 on the 787-8 is coming true in the 787-9.

  • How quickly they would build it
  • How advanced it is compared to any other.
  • How great it is!
  • and once again so forth
That was 2007 and now its 2014, and it has come true, only with the 787-9, because of the 787-8 journey. The 787-8 is that wonderful step-child no one will talk about once the 787-9 is delivered. The 787-8 will use the back door and the 787-9 will use the font door.  Life isn't fair but it can be wonderful no matter the 787 you ride on.

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

The Magnificent Airplane Experience AKA: MAX

The Max has reach beyond the 2000 Airplane order book today as it reaches final approach on the start of initial construction for testing. The final approach is in 2015 as it wrestles with development, cross winds, and wind shear coming into the test phase. However, the order book keeps loading passengers in a rapid gap filling  effort against its competitor, Airbus. With over 2,010 orders booked, and another recent 100 order committed in April/May. Boeing is well on its way of selling superior performance over its rival.   It will be 8% more efficient in a toe to toe match against the Airbus NEO. In comparison to its 737 roots from the very first model, it is 20% more efficient. Even though the current, NG is more efficient than its contemporary rival, the A320. Boeing has had to make up time during this campaign, Airbus stole the march against Boeing in the first years when it announced the NEO ahead of Boeing's Max. Its customers flocked to the NEO in quantity during those first 18 months shortly after that first Airbus announcment of the NEO.

Nassau News Live:

Boeing 737 MAX Surpasses 2,000 Orders

Boeing then turned towards its own playbook and called "The Statue of Liberty" play and is now making a sprint to the Goal. They have sold better than fifty percent of narrow body aircraft since Boeing's announcement over its Airbus NEO rival for that same time period. Boeing has won important head to head battles with single aisle customers. Recently it had picked-up some additional sales speed in 2014 with unbooked commitments and unidentified customers. The 737 has some time and a growing crowd of customers appreciating the Max's appointments. A more efficient engine, advanced technology appointments, and customer treatments that are found in the 787. Boeing has used the best of what it has added to its metal airplane building accumen. New subtle designs that make it fly better through the air and with its more efficient engine, it will multiply the efficiency affect. A flight deck similar to its big sister the 787, and then its big brother the 777X. The 747-8i mom would be proud. A pilot could start with a 737 as a skilled professional and then turn around within several weeks for specializing their craft with a sibling up model class. They will all fly in a unifying sequence of Boeing aircraft. What does this mean?

Flexibility, for its customers is the first thing that comes to mind of an airline CEO. The millions spent in training is reduced by a seamless progression and having a career path for its accomplished pilot in a fast yet competent added value for that airline that buys the Boeing family of aircraft. These are things passengers never or seldom think about when flying on any aircraft. What's more important for them is comfort, security, and entertainment. If Boeing satisfies the passenger then it sells more airplanes.

Efficiency for its customers (Airline Company). What's behind the curtain is what airlines pursue. How efficient it this aircraft maintenance and how often does it need a wrench on its body?  That's what gets CEO's attention in a buying spree. The Max project has a whole engineering division dedicated towards this salesmanship feature. Boeing has developed a division to this endeavor called "The Edge". Airlines are buying the Max, protecting themselves from hidden operational cost using "The Edge". The Max, The Edge, and The performance is winning over customers in the emerging airline segment. Look to China for these reasons, the last two spree purchases (commitments) are coming from China and from airlines you probably haven't heard of in your life time. One being, Shandong Airlines, for fifty Max. They have a market for millions of people, They have a business plan and they need the tools to succeed. Here comes the Max and its support filling those voids that Shangdong might require, as they emerge with all new equipment.

Emerging Airline Markets would take a book full of writing and research when addressing the subject. This gives me an Idea. This book would look at untapped potential and how to release that Tiger. Boeing is trying to ride on that Tiger. The Emerging Airline needs a champion for its cause. What is critical in Asia, is that it may lack experience in critical areas necessary for its survival in a competitive environment. You know it as "survival of the fittest". An Emerging Airline company have trained pilots, various equipment and some patch work of ground support. It may be missing the continuity of a well oiled machine from top to bottom even though it has a solid business plan with great intentions. The Max will bring all those operational void fillers with its expertise and resources for a price that DIY Airlines could not achieve on its own. The CEO see Boeing as an opportunity for its emergence.

It is critical for any money making venture to be there in a hurry without sacrificing quality and dependability with its plans. That is a void of which I am referring, the quality isn't something you turn on like a water spigot. It takes years to embed that into your Airline DNA. Dependability the second leg of this proposal is through its equipment as well as the Performance. Boeing's Max can fill those voids for Emerging Airlines through contractual agreements that would save those airlines, period. Efficiency is the third leg for the Emerging Airline. Operational cost is minimized through new equipment and offered support for that equipment. Training comes into play as part of that agreement which all manufacturer's offer for its customers. However the MAX-Edge combination is a completeness theme for airlines that do have growing voids that are developed as an airline rapidly expands. Boeing offers a contingency plan through The Edge program.

Definition: Emerging Airlines are those that rapidly expands when opportunity presents itself.

Emerging Airline Voids(examples only):

  • No Max Ordered
  • Inconsistent Quality
  • Fragmented Dependability
  • Fractured Continuity and Efficiency
  • Operational Voids, lacking trained ground personnel
  • Lacking "The Edge" in Its portfolio
  • An operational Nightmare from using status quo
  • Not addressing change management from lack of experience to do so.
  • Not rewriting the business plan during change operations
  • The New Equipment is the tip of the spear, forgetting the shaft of the spear, an over arching plan that supports the spear tip.

Monday, May 19, 2014

The Way Of The Dinosauer or Finding A New Purpose

The Boeing 747 and the  Airbus A380 are both in danger of extincting. Just like the dinosaurs the are vulnerable because of its massive sizes. Smaller creatures dominate the earth today. The pelican is a big bird and the massive Directly is extinct. Now you can imagine why the Pterodactyl is extinct as it ran out of cow sized lunches. Boeing finds itself in the same position as the prehistoric big birds that faced extinction, not enough cattle to load on board. A smaller birds have moved in and taken a part of the 747 feedlot with 777's and 787's. The A350 will also nibble away more foliage in an ever shrinking market place for Raptors and and avians.

This may all sound preposterous comparing the airplane market to dinosaurs, but the lessons learned back then apply today in quantum physics. Lifting large masses need lower costs of fuel. The 747 and A380 make the Brontosaurus case wallowing in dried up mud holes. They weren't fast enough or versatile enough to dodge asteroids in time. Volcanic global climate change occurred. Scientist then didn't see that one coming. The 747 isn't really a dinosaur unless its people in the think tank are still reading  "The Land That Time Forgot" books. The 747 has to re-purpose itself in a hurry. It needs to make itself into a "Love Boat", type airship. Boeing should market the 747 as a freighter as it does, even though the freight market is down. It also needs to innovate the internals of the aircraft as part of its customer experience.

The passenger mind set is changed for the airline owning a 747. The paradigm shift brings in the reasons families will travel on the 747. Internal innovations is not about cheaper seat tickets because of fuel efficiency, it about the travel experience entirely.
A passenger boards a 747-8i because of what it offers better than its competitor. Again the flying "love boat" theme. Innovations for traveling families that would include areas for children having a theme of games, comfort and observation for the parents. A club atmosphere in first class. "Sleeping over" is part of the theme for adults with this special airline small compartments like you find in booths at the restaurants. Part of the booking experience is having the 747 configure for the passenger's travel space within the allotted square footage.

A passenger may order up a privacy screen for its passenger space or a different style of seating sequence within the economy space for its friends and family. The 747 would break the mold of three or four abreast in rows and rows and rows. While online, a passengers orders tickets that fit the passengers wants. If you want to line up the family in three or four abreast you get the lowest price ticket. If you want to reconfigure passenger space, the 747 Lego interior could do that in minutes with its ground service crew  using snap in and lock appliances like mini partitions facing seats or turning the layout into lay across couches. A cruise ship has balconies on the outside and inside cabins at a lower price. Window watching on the inside space would suffer but additional features not found on windowed areas would be available. A particular section forward on the 747 would have convertible space where beyond a certain point back  it would be standard seating for all sardine seekers.

The only way the 747 can survive is not flying like a row by row, row boat. It must survive with innovation inside the frame at a standardize features or make it fitting a customers wants, they just have to buy the space. They would offer enough variation for long flights where its not about your seat but its about much you enjoy getting there on a 747. Damn the efficiency of twin engine full party ahead. Getting there is more fun than being there on a 747. even if it only seats 350 rather than 450. What an airline can do on the 747 square footage is more than the sardines can do on a 777. This new American party animal can survive the meteor hits, ice ages, and a run of volcanoes. Boeing needs to innovate to the extent that people board because its a 747 and not a row by row boat, its a cruise ship in the air.

All this is just brainstorming, Boeing needs to think out of the box to save the 747 as a customer flying machine. Upstairs could be that Private cruise space with customer compartments. In the nose could be where clubbing  is possible. Main deck midsection is convertible family space and the back third traditional space for boring people who like reading magazines and texting. The plane from the ground up is built to receive internal innovations for its customers. I would buy a ticket on a fun 747 cruise ship over any row by row boat. The customers will save the 747 dinosaurs by receiving great value while getting there.

Friday, May 16, 2014

300th Post Mention and for the Record

I have reached 300 posts since November 2012. It has been a pleasure sharing my interest in aviation and would like to contiue as an outlet for my facination in the 787 and the Boeing saga. My commentary is full of dry humor and important observations. It is up to the reader to verify and then trust for yourself. I have tried to be purposfully biased and accurate at the same time. Boeing is my target in this saga. I show no love for Airbus as it is necessary for them to be my villan in this saga, for no particular reason, Other than the fact I fell into the Boeing tank a while back, and now I'm stuck with its success or failures just the same.

The 300 hundreth post Link below:

According to All Things 787 Blog It Flew 18 Hours 8 Minutes

Thank you to all and keep reading, because I get it right on occassion, and its often ahead of the news cycle.

Oh Air Canada, You Lucky Sea Dogs

Air Canada will receive its first 787 into the Homeland on Sunday on May 18, 2014, arriving at Toronto with a select ridership of employees. The excitement for the company is greater than Air Canada's customer critics. Air Canada has studied this aircraft in detail and likes what it sees, with its own future with the 787 equipment. I will share leadership quotes from the press so one can sense the  change of Air Canada's light, after a lengthy winter of operations with Air Canada's make due strategy.

We’re extremely excited. It’s going to be a big winner for us,” said Ben Smith, Air Canada’s chief commercial officer, in an interview.

“When you’re in this industry, it doesn’t happen very often,” said Smith, of the chance to bring back a brand-spanking new plane. “Last time, I got to do that was in 2007, when we took our first Boeing 777.”

The Dreamliner’s 251 seats are also seen as advantageous on routes where it may be harder to fill 300 to 450 seats on a Boeing 777.
“This airplane on its own is a fantastic airplane,” said Smith. “But what’s so special and so unique for Air Canada is the airplane perfectly sized, as if it was custom made for us.
“You don’t get to custom make an airplane, but every once in a while an airplane is built so perfectly for your marketplace that you get an extra special edge,” he said.
The 787 will offer three cabin classes – business, premium economy and economy.

What has Air Canada Found in its new airplane.

  • 251 seats
  • Three classes
  • Long range pleasurable ride.
  • A breathe of fresh air
  • Eternal Sundown, finally, comes with Electronic Window Shades eh!
  • Indoor Northern Lights all the time, requested by Mackenzie Brothers
  • Bangers on early morning flights.
  • Beer in three classes, Large, larger and largest
  • First Canadian Airline having an Eh Class and section
  • Passenger and Flight Attendant Manual with an English to English and French translation.
  • Bush pilot instruction guide 
  • Over Head Hockey and puck Rack. Ask flight attendant about their racks.
  • Flying with beer on stand-by option.
The excitement will continue, once Air Canada launches a plane load of Canadians with a boat load of tourist. Co-mingling that hasn't been seen since the Calgary Stampede in 1971. When I was there sleeping in a  bag on the stampede public camping Island next to Calgary Zoo. I had a personal Canadian showing me Calgary for 24 hrs. I can't even remember his name. Oh well it was fun just the same, arriving with my friends who had hitched hiked with me from Montana. Drop into the Stampede in a 787 and it will make your trip extraordinary part of your life-time. I was 19 then, and still remember it as if it were yesterday (digression font).

Execs Talking Point.
  • Now its anywhere and everywhere
  • Fun to fly in a 787
  • Low Fuel consumption expands Air Canada's world presence.
  • Custom Fit To Canada's Business Plan.
  • We are in the game that the 787 has changed. 

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Boeing,s, "Its Not On The Book's" But It Realy matters That its on the Media Board

This is a brief-(briefing) of what is happening out there when you look at the Boeing web site of "Orders and Deliveries" and you may miss something because it isn't there in plain view. The unidentified classification on the Boeing Website is populated with a plentiful bunch of 737's. I can only guess at the batch of unidentified 737 orders on the Boeing chart. Those orders are supposedly secret at the customer's discretion, but the press jumps a story occasionally and post a sales one day and the next day Boeing adds another 50 or so 737's to the book. Bloggers and Aerophytes become a guessing lot of writers on what's going on. Here is the latest Headline from China that  may end up on site as Unidentified.

Not Listed at this time.

New carrier to buy 50 B737 planes for US$3.8b   Link

CHINA’S newly established budget carrier Jiuyuan Airlines has placed an order for 50 Boeing 737 jets, Boeing said yesterday.
The order could be worth more than US$3.8 billion based on list prices and includes some of Boeing’s next-generation 737 jets, according to a statement posted on Boeing’s website.
With a registered capital of 600 million yuan (US$96.3 million), Jiuyuan Airlines is based at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport.

UnIdentified on Boeing' s Purchases

Airline to buy 50 jets
Xinhua-Global Times | 2014-4-22 0:13:02
By Xinhua - Global Times

 E-mail   Print
China's Shandong Airlines signed a contract on Monday with the US-based Boeing Company to buy 50 Boeing 737 passenger airplanes.

The airliners, including Boeing's 737 NG and 737 MAX models, will be delivered to Shandong Airlines from 2016 to 2020, said Ma Chongxian, chairman of the company, which is based in Ji'nan, capital of East China's Shandong Province.

Shandong Airlines aims to increase its fleet to over 140 at the end of 2020, which will be a surge of almost 100 percent, Ma said.

Shandong Airlines already operates 74 passenger aircraft, including 67 Boeing 737 airplanes.

Xinhua - Global Times

Not Booked and Identified At This Time.

777X not booked, not unidendified but a real deal with ANA

All Nippon Airways, a Boeing stalwart for many years, on 27 March placed a series of tentative commitments that will have disappointed and pleased Airbus in almost equal measure.
The heart of the fleet replacement programme is a deal – still to be firmed up – for six current-generation 777-300ERs and 20 Boeing 777-9Xs, with the latter to replace the 19 existing 777-300ERs in its fleet. It will also take 14 additional 787-9s, bringing its total Dreamliner fleet to 80.

However, orders for the 777X series were already outstripping those for the A350-1000. Airbus order data to the end of February lists 189 commitments for the -1000, while – assuming the ANA deal is firmed – Boeing has already garnered 300 orders for the revamped 777.
To an extent, the A350-1000 does not compete directly with the 777-9X, ceding around 30 seats and 200nm (370km) of range to its rival, but Airbus will nonetheless have pitched it to ANA. Save for theA380, it could offer nothing else."

Conclusion: With mysterious record keeping per Customer Request as it relates its own fanancial situation there is a steady building of its Off the Books of Likely Orders (OTBLO). I have missed some  OTBLO's, for the purpose  of demonstrating Boeing's shadow books in play without going deep into data. By years end, many of these OTBLO will miraculesly appear in December of 2014 on Boeing's website.
Currently there are:

100 737's unaccounted for per Boeing order report
20 777-9 not listed
14   ANA 787-9 in the works.

A total of 134 shadow orders for this brief report.

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

According to All Things 787 Blog It Flew 18 Hours 8 Minutes

According to the the test flight schedule All Things 787 provides, the 787-9 flew a test flight with a duration of 18 hours and 8 Minutes on May 13, 2014. It leavers people like me unable to understand, what all that means so I'll attempt to figure it out. It is a wonderful sign in testing that the 787-9 has legs. It can go to the same spot in the world going east or west and arrive 18 hours later. At 500 miles per hour its a plus 9,000 mile flight. And so forth. More details would be helpful, but its a significant testing milestone for the 787-9 program.

Uresh has responded on his "All Things 787", blog site. Boeing completing the 787-9 ETOPs certification and testing flight. The 787-9 is nearing its completion of testing having accomplished such a lengthy flight of this type. End of June, is in Boeing's gun sight for testing completion for an FAA 787-9 certification event. The first New Zealand Air delivery by mid year, probably in the month of July is on track. Good news for the customers.

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

A Few Of My Favorite Things Things or The Morphing of The 777X

Mike Carriker, is a favorite test pilot at Boeing, but with his engineering aspect. He flies them, designs them and then flies them again and again. Its Boeing secret weapon. The "Mike Effect", which went exclusively into the the Boeing 787. Not only did he lead the charge on what an airplane should do, be and is, he lead the charge on first flights.  Guess who showed up to front load the 777X project, Mike Carriker! Enough said at this point. The 777X is a morph of the 737-787 projects. Commonality is the Carriker finger print. Wide displays found on the 787 is on the this promising X plane. The carry forward is immense from all DNA found in the preceding projects. The X child does have a family tree. Draw that tree from its relatives from the last 40 years from the 747 down to the 737.

This strand of Boeing DNA is called the the double helix "Lessons Learned" and is the core strand. In breeding the 777X, it takes the 787 plastic wing influence and flight deck. It takes GE engines not unlike the 787 engines. It explores laminar flow technology just being incorporated in the 787-9 and 787-10 for long bodies. The 737 comes into play at various work stations of development. Confusing somewhat, that's why you pay the engineers the big bucks. It is a delight to the viewing audience to follow this morphing project. There are some Boeing Rabbits not pulled out of the hat yet, but will when the forming stage hits the fan. Folding wings come from the deck of the YorkTown from WWII. The corsair is on the family tree. Mike Carriker is not the father of the 777X he is the mentor of the project. This aircraft will eventually to the pilots, this airplane is going to the engineers now. Engineer/test pilot Mike Carriker is going into the pit and sort the best of Boeing out into one composite aircraft from all others. It not composite with plastics but composite with ideas that work and have worked in premium fashion.  Mike Carriker opus contribution will make him a complete book in Boeing's anthology.

The folding wings, Cab function and Engines will make more pilots fly different types of Boeing models with easy transitions and immediate training. The Plastic sections will fool the aircraft into thinking its the best of the 787 when its a 777X. The items found on the 787 that do not go on the 777X are just variant approaches. The 777X will incorporate the net sum gains from the 777300ER and fly like a 787. The 777-300ER is out selling the A350-1000 for a reason. 20 years ago Boeing hit the suite spot on that design. Now it strives to hit every sweet spot it ever invented during the forty years with modern innovations from those accomplishments. This is a morph project with all hands on deck for the Best of Boeing. Its not a 787, 737, or last years 777300ER. Its best of the show. The Boeing gantlet is thrown down with Carriker to pick up and he has done so.

The pep talk is complete from the above ramble. Blogging is wonderful because we don't compete with column space or editor restrictions, bloggers get to research, think, and write without getting fired. However, understanding the 777X is the next blogger assignment. This is just a brief introduction to this 777X homely.

Below is a Link to the real reporter and my research reference written by Guy Norris. Someone who does a great job.

Aviation Week:

Boeing Details 777X Wing-Tip Control Options

May 12, 2014
Crew commonality, wing fold and flight control form focus for 777X flight deck design

Monday, May 12, 2014

Thinking About The 787-10 and What It Can Do

Boeing almost has its 787-9 project in the rear view mirror. It has learned much during this model progression. You can take lessons learned from the 787-8 project and lean out those -8 stoppers in the 787-9 with a remarkable result of building the larger sibling with all the promise that Boeing made on the 787-8 in the beginning. It is realized at the end of the 787-9 progression. Not only will the 787-9 have all the kinks worked out before its first months in service, it will install advancements that the 787-8 will not have on its base configuration.  The 787-9 will have better air flow in the air. It will have a solid battery protection system, Boeing will build the 787-9 without hesitation or plant problems that would jeopardize Boeing's production like its former awkward shut downs on the factory floor.  The 787-9 will be a virtuoso performance repeated again by the 787-10 project. The roll out for the 787-10 for its customer has a date in 2018.

What does this mean? It means , the project maturity will guarantee its customers an incredible opportunity for a 330 seat aircraft that will bridge the world through routes with a seamless web of heavy lifting of customers. On the Pacific Rim, Trans Asiatic and the Trans Atlantic market and with the Middle East connected, it will make it difficult for Airbus since they don't have a continuity for its family of aircraft not matching Boeing. This, the 787-10, is an Ideal aircraft for Africa, as its range covers that Continent. It doesn't need 8,000 plus mile range that the 787-9 offers. Those flying lanes that are thin and long which the 787-9 is well suited holding up to 290 customers in three classes all the way.

What Boeing has accomplished during its "Late Period" is a consolidation of technology during those three years of regrouping the plan. Too much too soon was a complaint by its competitor from Airbus. They came out with the "Dumbed Down A350" family of aircraft. However, Boeing faked Airbus into this blunder when it struggle to hit one date on time with overly complex aircraft. Customers needed codling from Boeing to hang in there while Airbus kept up the chiding with Boeing customers with a mantra, "Ours will be somehow better".  Some customers bought the line and moved to the head of the Airbus line. The Boeing line was way long with a 3 year late  troubled program. Pretty scary stuff with Billions on the line, and possible financial disasters looming around the success or failure for the 787 program. Point well taken by the skittish customer. Point ignored by those in too deep for turning back on Boeing. Split orders came on the Horizon as Japan Airline balked and ordered some Airbus as a hedged against Boeing problems.

Like a Boeing teenager, those problems started clearing up on its face. No more pimples in 2014 except for cluster planning Charleston at the first of this year. The prom is coming for the 787. The 787 -10 is another slap in the face for Airbus as it out sells the A350-1000 easily. Airbus still has a substandard version of the 787 with its A350 family. The did one thing right with the A350-900 is that it sold a bunch to Wanna Be Airlines with its strongest selling point that customers would be closer to delivery by signing on during its initial sales surge.

The A350-800 floundered with no back order line. The A350-1000 didn't hit a home run. The A350-900 offered a short line to delivery and filled it.

This brings us to 2014 battle ground conditions. The famous Boeing and Airbus surge orders are over. Everybody with money has ordered, including Air India. The best scenario for either is the second phase of sales. It is period of time where customers that own and fly the 787 has a leg up on Airbus customers. Even Japan Airlines has a leg up even if its pride and honor were damaged by faulty battery and other mishaps from Boeing. Japan Airline is hoping for a better position later on with Boeing or Airbus. It means that Japan Airlines is hung up, as of late which way to go, and doesn't tolerate airplane mishaps in manufacturing. I say to Japan Airlines, "No Guts, No Glory". However, the 787-10 fits 95% of the world's routing, as the 787-9 will have 100% of the world routing. Those long thin traffic lanes will see 787-9 carrying 250 passenger anywhere in three comfortable seating classes. The 777X is now mentioned as the "Post 2020" aircraft in its own class called the "Difference Maker". This Difference Maker will cause major problems for Airbus in Asia to the Middle East. From Malaysia and Singapore throughout the region. Going east is a long stretch of Ocean to North America, and the other way, west,  to London Heathrow across a considerable land mass. The 787-10 will service everything in between in the long thin markets. The Boeing aircraft tool box has customer matchings for all the world routes, and it will preform better than what Airbus can match when considering the total aircraft family package.

Art Terms or Conditions:
  • Post 2020 "Excellence Period" -Vision Statement = 777X
  • "Difference Maker"-Mission Statement = The 777X
  • Pre 2020 "Late Period"- 787 Artistic Aberration
  • "Max Effort" Contemparary Impressionism 42 prints a month
  • "Second Surge Sales" Art Show

The second surge sales begins in 2015 as Boeing demonstrates the order book dynamics of a shorter wait line than Airbus for Carbon Fiber with advance technology aircraft. In 2015 it will build 120 787's a year Being first with customers and being first to gate has its perks.

Thursday, May 8, 2014

Moving Average Recap For The Money Markets

LiftnDrag Blog has tried to develop a three month moving average indicator which measures the specific progress of the 787 program. It ignores how many 787's are punched threw the doors each month, it ignores post door testing and it ignores short term game stoppers because it gathers all that slack in a ninety day period and gives its customers a continuous rate flow of incoming Boeing Receipts.

Charleston is about to move this Average forward.

Boeing has been climbing the indicator trail since the first of the year as it delivered four  787 in January. Another four in February. Hold on to that thought as you compare 2013 with a paltry 1 or closer to Zip as possible without panic. March of 2014 was 10, now it moves on to Eight in April. The 90 day average upward trends to 7.33 for 90 days. This is an investors delight as Boeing is now closer to its promised ten a month continuous delivery number.  They mean to make and deliver 120 787's per year. That number will dip when the 787-9 is infused in, during its first six months of delivery. A second dip will occur when the 787-10 is in delivery mode.

If you adjusted for the 787-9 test planes which have logged over 1200 test hours Boeing would have had a one plane per month increase of the last 6 months and have bolstered the delivery moving average by an additional 1 copy for each average taken. It would be fair to say that the 787-8 was on pace for April's moving average at 8.5 if Boeing resources were solely 787-8 and no 787-9 interruptions.

However, the reality is that Boeing will be producing all three models at the same time and it geared its factory(s) for that event this last quarter. Charleston, for the first time, is putting it together. The initial thrust with its first Dreamliners was a forming stage of productivity following its storming stage of just making 787's. I look to see the Charleston's Plane Making, step up and preform just like Everett,Wa. It's a matter of a short time that this all comes to fruition. The 90 Day Moving Average of delivery will validate this bold claim. Starting June 1, 2014 until June 1, 2015 will see close to 120 787's a month no mater the number of plugs installed on the base frame. The total number for 787's may fall short of its 110 unit goal at the delivery gate in 2014. Investors should adjust their expectation closer to 100, which in itself is a remarkable number for the 787. The out take on this production goal is that Boeing does not want to lay up short in Airplane Wars. It needs and wants 10 a month for the duration going to customers around the world. Airbus may not reach 100 a year A350's for another three years. In that time Boeing hopes to flood the market with the 787 as the standard, making the A350 just an alternative and nothing more. Airbus will have its moments, but may never achieve a pinnacle status  like the 787 will with its family of aircraft.

The 90 day moving average is a simple attempt at a snap shop view for delivery, and if Boeing is reaching its stated goals. Ninety days absorbs many million parts, mishaps and changes on the production floor, as it introduces new processes within its family of aircraft. Ten a month to the customers is the goal, never mind the messiness behind the production flow, those 10 a month is all that matters coming out perfect every three delivery days.

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Top Secret Laminar Flow Technology The Boeing 787-9

Fore.... I took a shot 400 yards out on the golf course. That little white ball went farther than I could throw a rock. Back to the physics class I went with golf ball in hand. All those little dimples on a golf ball eliminated a lot of drag carrying the ball 400 yards out. The 787-8 has tail drag as if it were flying with a boat anchor behind it. So does the A350, or all airplane models. Boeing smiles, pauses, and goes out to the golf course for a staff meeting. You know one engineer thought out loud. "These golf ball dimples are the answer." The supper secret laminar flow project was launched so Boeing wouldn't like you to know. Those dimples on the golf balls are now installed on the 787-9 in the form of perforations on the leading edge of the vertical tail section and the other two horizontal tail surfaces. The drag produced by standard surfaces is reduced significantly in a simple, but secret manner.

Dad gum it, Bugs block the laminar air flow hole scheme during a flight. The fuel savings are so significant each flight can be serviced in a few minutes while on the ground with a special power washer. Problem solved, but laminar air flow secrets remain intact. It is not so secret in design, but it is through Boeing's trial and error research to reach the proper configuration for holes, and design on the leading edges of the tail assemble. Not only that the air flow is channeled specifically around flight surfaces with more air rather than surface drag. Boeing has worked out how to manage passing air against the surfaces, so that air passing by the surface doesn't act like a boat anchor, but only brushes against other air in the flow. This condition makes the 787-9 787-10 and 777X fly without a boat anchor on its tail.

It is an airplane Speedo, while the jet swims in the air, rather than a potato sack wrap around tail section during a rip tide.

The black leading edge represents the Boeing secret without bugs. Airbus has no answer in this proprietary test at this time. Significant fuel saving are expected with this innovation.  The next time you hear laminar air flow, it's unique and a big thing. Tell your friends about this, as its bigger than a 787 window shade. The 787-10 was first rated a 7,200 mile range. I am anxious to see if that range expands without one additional gallon of fuel pumped on-board. It may gain a rating of 7,500 miles after testing. Could Boeing build a flying golf ball with all flight surfaces dimpled or having holes on significant edges spilling the air as it tries to stick on surfaces? If it does then the 787 will have an easier time flying over golf courses as everyone below yells fore...