Thursday, April 3, 2014

LOT Makes Money On "The Dreamliner Effect"

The DreamLiner Effect is simple. Buy Dreamliners and make money.

Travel Agent Central;  Link, and Publication Credit.

LOT Polish Airlines Achieves Profitability in 2013, First Time Since 2008

April 3, 2014
Even though LOT has taken many administrative actions affecting many processes and staffing. An audit pointed out weaknesses, where LOT responded and acted through change management. The central core change was the 787 it has purchased. LOT projected in 2012 that it needed to go through an effect-change by structural decisions towards profitability. The first big item affecting the bottom line was the 6, 787's it purchased as the core of its fleet. It makes money. LOT then address a more efficient way to run its business.
Five years ago LOT did not have a way out of its dismal position. The change management would not be enough to over come its loses during operations. It would probably fail.Enter the "Game Changer", the Boeing 787. Combining a change management approach with the Game Changer has made LOT profitable. It is at the cross road of breaking out as an airline leader, and carefully anticipates each subsequent Dreamliner in how it will play in its fleet.
The problem comes into play as more airlines acquire the Dreamliners. The market place has taken notice and is placing its Dreamliners near LOT's airspace. Airlines like Norwegian and British Airways are plying the same destinations. 
LOT needs to carefully decide where the DreamLiner needs to go, just as they have stated. Its becoming a "DreamLiner Chess Match".  LOT considers how the 787 Queens Bishop can cover Chicago. Norwegian Airlines move its 787 like pawns on the chess board with seasonal coverage in resort regions of the world. Japan Airlines builds its chess board with 787 castle like routes. Each route is run with precision and the returns are computed directly to its financials. That is a quick review of what the DreamLiner has done for them. Least we not forget Ethiopian, the jury is in and they are guilty of being successful with the DreamLiner before and after its debilitating fire at London/Heathrow. 
The Dreamliner chases off competition from (those) other market beaters. Passengers are getting use to a DreamLiner experience and are now considering it the expectation of air travel. The Boeing problem occurs when a 787 Glitches and the passengers are booted off the 787, because of a false code. While the 787 is checked, they may find themselves on an A330 replacement. I would call that experiance a "Does Not Meet Expectations 787 Depression", (DNME787D). 
LOT has a few chess pieces in the game. They are critical for its survival of where they will place them on the world game board. Each 787 follow-on delivery is vital to its profit margin for years to come. The LOT "Board" has some skin in the game, and is destined not to loose. In 2012, I mentioned the Airlines to watch and what they did with its 787. Those particular early 787's  affected each customer's bottom line. The short list was and still remains import, as a bell weather result for the 787 financial impact.

  • Ethiopian
  • LOT
  • Japan Airlines
  • ANA
I also said Air India, would be something not to watch as it was in so much turmoil, and remains so. 
Then Japan Airlines blinked. It will be interesting to watch them as they finally establish its 787 fleet. Look at its bottom line number before they take delivery of the A350, and watch the side by side operational numbers. JAL's blinking has failed a reflex for the eye lid back open.
If everyone of those early customers who were skidding around the loss meter is now substantially flying above the P/L line, then the case is made that the 787 lifted up those same customers by the boot straps in a turbulent market place and makes them money.