Sunday, February 2, 2014

Ground Hog Day Boeing Blog

It’s time to roll out the stew with potato beef and carrots. The traditional meal also calls for Corn Bread Honey and butter. That's what you do on Ground Hog Day in the USA.

I will make a six week forecast after I finish off another bowl of stew. Boeing's forecast is as follows:

Customers start reporting back that its business plans are genius because they are making money on airworthy 787's. China Southern opens New Zealand, and New Zealand anxiously awaits its own 787-9. In fact the prediction is that the 787 was really built for New Zealand. That is how genius Boeing customers are with its 787 in that part of the world. Norwegian Air finally solves its problems by spring break, hauling countless Norsemen to the Caribbean Islands for some R&R.  Problems? No problem as Boeing efforts out, a calming campaign, for glacial intrigue for the summer.

The global foot print is changing at a steady march on travel with the 787. If Boeing establishes a glitch free next six weeks then new orders will continue in September with another 100 or so orders by that time.  The winter of Customer discontent is drawing to a close. Boeing's audit plan by the FAA is highly orchestrated at all its factories on a fact finding binge of FAA compliance. 

Boeing executives are pondering all its production woes and the continued flying hiccups. They have placed a task force for each category of problem. By the fourth of July those task forces will have arms around each occurrence found in the 787 from the factory floor to the customer’s hanger. Air India can stop selling its Airplanes and leasing back those same aircraft. The Indian Government will conduct audits to induct aircraft. 

The Boeing footprint grows bigger by another fifty 787's. Those customers who receive the 787, continue to load those wide bodies with people and fly them around the world. As the side-liners complain about the 787 remaining late by three + years. The ground hog says wait six weeks and the 787 will have a revival time or rebirth of interest as Boeing proceeds to execute as they promised. That execution of a plan is a skill and is what Boeing does best. It executes a plan well. Boeing has resources dedicated to make bad things go away in a hurry. Each airline model, from the beginning of time (all models), has had a pause. From the 747 until now each model has had its moment of whoa! Even the 737 had a moment or two to short out some flying anomalies.

Now during this Ground Hog Day salute while it celebrates Boeing's winter of discontent closing in six weeks. Great things will happen that no one predicted because they are hooked on the "late" bi-line for all intelligent reports. The trick now is pulling off an airplane that is 20 years ahead of the Airbus' A-350. 

The 787 is still positioned to be that airplane. Customers who blink, like JAL, may find in the long run, they chose unwisely. The stakes are high. The 777 went through a refinement in service time and now 20 years later people clamor for the 777-300ER. The 777 has matured right before customers eyes. Just like an ugly awkward child grows up and becomes a beauty queen at age 20 right before the parents.  Boeing is quietly applying resources in numbers to various programs that were identified as problematic. This quiet strategy will once again emerge as a winner. Smart customers know this, impatient customers knee jerk around, and lost customers haven't got a clue.

In six weeks the battery issue is over as well as software problems. The reoccurring India syndrome will be solved. Every customer has its own teething problems with a new aircraft. Those will retire one by one, as its maintenance teams become more proficient in handling this new technology. . When Boeing delivers its 200th 787, then the wise commentators will speak! "I knew this a great airplane". Before next Ground Hog Day there will be close to 250 787 flying. It will also be the time to compare the Airbus effort in the A-350 group.