Friday, February 28, 2014

Boeing's Fixed Ethiopian 787 Has Airbus Over A Barrel

Ethiopian Airlines had a shock when  its new 787 caught fire last year at London Heathrow as it burned a large hole in the the airframe ceiling, where the vertical stabilizer is attached. The incident rendered the 787 destroyed, and Airbus calmly reasserted that a frame with attaching plastic panels is the way to fly. Airbus could simply remove and replace panels in a simple process anywhere in the world if something like that happened to an A-350 design. Boeing had a very expensive or an undo-able reply concerning a 787 repair job even if it was less than what occurred at London Heathrow on the Ethiopian's  787 locator beacon fire, near the tail section.

Boeing had a plan long before this incident that Airbus could only imagine. In contingency plans it had worked out on what to do in the event of tail drags, equipment collisions and other strike events against the 787 plastic hull. It never envisioned the need for a plastic fix near the rear crown of the 787, a very critical and highly engineered area where many join functions with flight surfaces occur and other technical systems surge through the aircraft, A fire in that spot was not a high probability event that would ever occur. Airbus eagerly awaited a Boeing fix on its barrel section design over the Airbus' plug and replace panel repair. In silence they high -fived that non injury incident, as for now the Airbus panel case wins over the barrel.

It appears that a well written Aviation Week article has outlined the case that many thought would not hapen, but Boeing's travel A-team made a repair in London right near where it caught fire.

Must Read Link Below:

Key Quotes from Aviation Week

"The job was also handled in a routine and confident way thanks to almost a decade of development, test and manufacturing experience on the 787, in addition to earlier structural composite work on the 777 and other smaller components, he says.
“We've been working with a much bigger scale of composites in the factory and in flight test. It's analogous to when we went from analog to digital aircraft,” Fleming says. “There was a skill set of mechanics around analog, and that changed with the 747-400 and 777. The skill set changed as you went to fly-by-wire, and you see a similar evolution taking place on the materials side.”

The repaired 787 flew on a test flight from Heathrow on Dec. 21, and returned to service shortly after. Aside from this major event, Fleming says “the real success has been composites.” He notes that “there was a lot of anxiety in the industry about lightning strikes and 'ramp rash,'” the day-to-day damage caused by impact with ground vehicles and airport stands and ramps. “There were concerns about lightning strikes particularly from Japanese customers, but I quit counting after 20 lightning strikes,” Fleming says. Composites have proved very durable, he points out."
 Read the full article to gain an appreciation for all the questions asked at the beginning of the 787 program that is now is answered. Lightning strikes, major repairs and minor patching have been answered when the Ethiopian 787 lifted off from London- Heathrow leaving the Airbus position, a moot point in aviation annals, over the barrel. 

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Question To The Press, Is Boeing Poised To Produce Ten 787 A Month In Everett?

Looking at Boeing's production slots 1-4 they have 2 each of the 787 on the production list in Everett,WA from station one through four. I noticed this as a anomoly, or is this what Boeing really is doing towards the ten a month pace it has just launched since the first of the year. The surge line is primed with four in its production as well as the the main production sequence in building 40-24.  However, building 40-26 (surge)  same like number of 4 787 in its final assemby line. Theroetically, Boeing could push ten units a month down final assembly in the Everett production scheme. That is my Big news observation. They don't need Charleston for the time being, until Boeing works out the Charleston kinks. Please "news" do a follow up on this idea, it has legs.

The Dirty Little Airplane Wars By Marquess Of Queensberry. Airbus Keeps Its Dukes Up!

"Taking aim at Airbus's flexibility over pricing of the A330, whose development was paid for long ago, a Boeing executive said it would be a "losing proposition" against the smaller 737 in China, even if Airbus gave up any gap in price.
An Airbus official retorted curtly, saying Boeing's own data was "veracity-challenged".

Rueters reference see link below.
Combine that with John Leahy's, " Dogs Breakfast", at Singapore Air Show. You are beginning to see a pattern that Boeing has really, really  an irritating new Zip Code under Airbus' central nervous systems spine. Everywhere Airbus turns, is a sales pitch from Boeing, that is blocking Airbus' attempt on world dominance. Its begins to show-up with the 747-8i, in that dwindling Fat Body market for the A-380 and is encroached upon by a cheaper and more efficient by seat count, 747-8i. Currently, Boeing is nipping at Airbus' below its own A380 break even point. With the A-380 order count at 304 total booked, it can't reach its break-even number due to time valuation for money as it will take another 10 years of production.  Cost increases and money devalues on locked prices. The break-even point varies over time upward in units, and Airbus is doomed to that outcome, as order numbers grow quiet. Even though Airbus has just received a large order for the A-380, (two years of sales work) that profit dog won't hunt in the upcoming years. It will lay on the Airbus' front porch by 2016. Everybody who wants one will have its orders up. 2016 and Airbus will be in a mid afternoon restaurant slump for the A-380. While the little dog, 747-8i may continue to nip at Airbus' heals.

Rueters: Article Reference for Context

Wikipedia Unofficial Count
CustomerEntry into serviceFirm OrdersOptionsDeliveriesEARRPress Release
Air Austral20142*
Air France20091229*[2]
Asiana Airlines20146*[3][4]
British Airways20131274*[5]
China Southern Airlines201155*[6]
Etihad Airways2014105*[8]
Hong Kong Airlines201510
Kingdom Holding Company20131*
Korean Air2011108*[9]
Malaysia Airlines201266*[11]
Qatar Airways2014103*[13][14]
Singapore Airlines200724119*[15]
Skymark Airlines20146*[16]
Thai Airways International201266*[17]
Transaero Airlines20154*[18]
Virgin Atlantic201866*[19][20]

304 orders with  123 deliveries tells the tale after a many year leap (2007) on Boeing's next offering, the 787 (2012). Even though they are not in the same same class, they represent the same type of gigantic capitalization poured out during a R&D and production of a type change aircraft. Boeing will surpass  the Airbus A-380 break even point on the 787 from its own investment hole. Before Airbus can get it "there", as in making money they will languish since the A380 is inflexible for route changing. In fact the order book will shrink before Airbus can make its money on the aircraft, where Boeing continues to bring in, its 787 sales order book, well beyond break even. Boeing now has enough 787 on the books to make a profit by 2017. That is my own sensible projection for writing down a profit for the project, when everyone else says sometime in 2015 for the 787. Sometime in 2015 will also be the follow-on sales years for current owners of the aircraft. The A-350 will have its splash during that time and the comparisons will have been made. A second look for the 787 after 2015, will be at an epic period for the 787. All airlines will want to know who did the best. The 787 or the A-350.

If Boeing fixes everything in a permanent fashion by then, "they really need to do that little thing",  it will come down to bottom lines of commercial carriers and the flying reach of such aircraft in its business plans. The A-330 is already marked for niche duty, and will have a graduation ceremony of rotating out to those niche routes, as airlines resupply  the A-330 with the "new premier generation of aircraft". This includes the MAX and the 777X models coming on, later in the decade.

So the Dog's breakfast is now seved in South East Asia by Leahy. The stakes are high, and becomes the tipping point for the duopoly. Winner takes the domination award. "The Veracity (or lack thereof) Challenge Award" should be awarded to Airbus rather than Boeing. The old school yard adage is in play at high levels, as Boeing is tempted to say, "it takes one to know one". Since they brought it up, they will receive the "Veracity Award Of Acheivement". They somehow explain how the A-350 works better than a 787, before customers even take delivery, using old technology with a plastic bodies. Meanwhile these so called  "untruthful competitors", have over 120 airlplanes for its customers flying every day, every hour and every second. After-all, Airbus sweeps the "Hydraulics" award, and the "My Extra Wide Body is Not Enough Award" (77X). Plus they receive a medallion for "No New Breakthrough Technogoly On The A-350 Award. They just barrowed from 787 suppliers, its new stuff to plug and play on the A-350.

I haven't mentioned the Neo and single isle dominance. Unfortunately no one has produced its single isle champion to the market, as of yet, and we have bloated order books for both sides. The veracity remains with its actual operational numbers. The spin of the roulette wheel will tell who wins and who loses. The Max has made the case it beats the NEO. The Neo claims order book numbers and proclaims,"customer's know best, look at our sales numbers". Boeing retorts, "we are gaining on you NEO because we are better." ... And so forth and so forth!

This battle will be solved by the veracity of flight test numbers of the MAX. Then the table will turn when those actual numbers come out and play in the minds of airline analyst and CEO's. If the Max has more seats than the comparable Neo and flies cheaper, then the single isle market does not move aircraft for its amenities, but for the the cheaper ticket prices. On board passenger gizmo's are not as important on a three hour flight as on a 15 hour 787 flight. Customers want to hop on and hop off with value and efficiency. The MAX has a leg up on that matter as its ticket prices could trend lower than the NEO's  tickets could do, because of MAX value is imputed within the airframe. Why fly on an American Airlines NEO when you can fly on a SW Max for those hours spending $20 dollars cheaper for the ticket, savy!

That would also take Boeing to get that message out after its two years in service. Then you will see aircraft NEO models orders, flipping from Airbus to Boeing in the third year during the NEO vs MAX war.

Veracity of a Dog's Breakfast is Airbus' war cry, as it pains its way through South East Asia's market. A better war cry from Boeing is the "The Silence of Victory is Our Engine, Our Wings and Our Design".

Monday, February 24, 2014

The Terrible Teens and What To Do!

Like all parents who no longer can cope with a terrible teen there are options for that parent who will remedially apply techniques on that teen. The 787-8 who languishes with a thousands drops of water torture in Everett,WA. Is the billion dollar write -off that doesn't necessarily have to happen. Boeing needs to find a partner on a 787-8 project. One suggestion could have good consequences and  provide a win-win solution.

Enter a military agreement by developing those terrible teens (production numbers 11-19) in an AWACS development plan.  The large 787-8 as opposed to the much smaller 737 current submarine hunters or AWAC type aircraft could be crammed with up to one hundred specialist and its equipment to manage war on the ground, air and sea in array of devices up linked to satellites and its photography. Imagine having a 15 hour on station presence over a broad playing field directing friendlies and defeating the foes. Integrating with cruise missiles, submarine and other tactical applications. The ability to find intruders in an array of tracking devices and giving real time updates by the milli second data streams. Attacks and targets are orchestrated from above in the middle space. It would use both the up-linking of ground inputs giving targets on the ground a specific GPS address and directing that upload to war fighters is the sub space internet. Mufti tasking a large array of equipment could be the "terrible teens tasks".

So Boeing should look to the military and offer a quid quot pro deal in upgrading war field management with jets large enough and jets that can fly long enough to have a 24 hour presence in a theater of war. This integration would provide all services the ultimate high ground. Satellites have greater safety but are diminished by the ability of using up satellite resources in re positioning where an aircraft could give a broader range of services and remain on station 24 hours a day with shifts of flights with a super large command center during a crises.

To further make this case one would think a missile shoot down of this large aircraft with a hundred skilled persons would be a tragic loss. And it would be. But the same electronics on-board the large command center would also track, aircraft, missiles and its launches where a sufficient shield would protect this command center in seconds rather than minutes. Early warning and defensive measure would most certainly protect the 787 platform, as it could integrate its own defense from all the war making delivery systems from the Army, Navy and Air force at its disposal. A multi-missile attack would expend valuable resources a foe needs to sparingly use against the US Arm Force. Counter measures would be directed by the 787 Command center since it has all the data available of its resources available and to deploy it.

The 787 has plenty of electrical generation on-board to expand the AWACs mission into a true battle field command center without using up its military satellites when re positioning them. The 787 high ground can reach most satellite trajectories to relay battle field information and these terrible teens could do that Job.

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

John Leahy " Dogs Breakfast,", Really JOHN At An Event!

Especially when considering the status of what Dogs are in, with a Singapore Menu selection for the South East Asia cuisine.

The cover line – War over wide bodies – refers to Max Kingsley-Jones’s piece, filed from the show, about how the big two air framers were taking potshots at the other’s twin-aisle product strategy at Singapore, with Airbus’s John Leahy describing his rival’s eight-aircraft line-up in the 200- to 400-seat space as a “dog’s breakfast”. Boeing’s Randy Tinseth retorted by saying Airbus’s A350 “looks a little, too late to the market place”. - See more at: The Link

This is a quick quip about our Euro Trash, as in taking the trash out in Singapore. The A-350 is a lost leader blow out sale for undiscerning airlines.  Even with the 787-8 roll out into the market place glitching all the way because it is loaded with electronic opportunity for airlines, the A350 can't glitch what they don't have. Once Boeing sorts out all the advancements into a complying format it will make the A-350 a waste of time and money. Lithium -Ion is not dead, and those software issues are handled.

So John, I'm surprised, as the head sales chief as a manufacturer of flying big stuff. You make that kind of remark in South East Asia. Dog is sometimes is what's for dinner not for breakfast, assuming dogs are on the menu.

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Qatar Buys Air From Boeing

Not actually air but the wind that is created, as the globe spins. Qatar has agreed to integrate Boeing wind information systems on its current fleet of 787 aircraft. Those annoying head winds will be dampened by flight management systems as it updates the latest flight conditions from wind occurrences around the world, and take advantage of both head and tails of wind. The importance of this information is called a flight management tool. Resulting in a many tiered advantage. Timeliness and fuel efficiency is the air That Boeing sales to Qatar. Fuel loads eat into the profitability of one launch. How much fuel is loaded in weight determines how much more or less the aircraft will burn. Finding the right winds could save tens of thousands of $ dollars on one trip. A global system from satellites measures jet stream and wind currents relaying that information to a target aircraft en-route to its destination. The on-board computer may tweak the flight a little north or south of the flight line drawn on its filed flight plan. A small deviation will squeeze and save more fuel for the next flight and so forth. At the end of the year one can project the what ifs out of the systems  into dollars saved directly from operations to the bottom line.

Qatar bought air flow from Boeing in a package. The sales team made a case that air can cost you money if mis-applied.

Qatar Airways and Boeing in deal to maximise in-flight operational efficiency

Qatar Airways and Boeing in deal to maximize in-flight operational efficiency

"Qatar Airways and Boeing have signed a five-year agreement to provide Boeing Wind Updates services for the airline to maximize in-flight operational efficiency.
Boeing Wind Updates provides customized, real-time wind and temperature information to aircraft. This data allows for more efficient trajectory prediction during pre-flight operations and continuous optimization in-flight by providing tailored wind information for flight crews and the aircraft flight management system. As part of the agreement, Boeing Wind Updates will be integrated fleet-wide, across all Qatar Airways Boeing and Airbus aircraft.

“We are pleased to upgrade our wind up-link capability by integrating the Boeing Wind Updates service into our operations at Qatar Airways to properly predict and measure current wind conditions,” said Qatar Airways CEO Akbar al-Baker."

Monday, February 17, 2014

Harrumph We'll Build That Wing Anywhere, Harrumph We'll Build The 777X Anywhere

Hey Seattle/Everett, Harrumph, Boeing isn't going anywhere, but just across the parking lot. After much consideration and flirts with States, Cities and municipalities the 777x comes totally home. Otherwise, it never left the NW or the municipality for that matter. Boeing just gave a big harrumph to the union and went back to work in Everett. The 777X magical wing is being built in Oz. Holy Corsair Batman! This wing will be carted across the hall way to assembly when completed. I know those ginormous buildings don't have hallways, that in itself is an obscene concept. The folding, flexing, and flying wing is going to be built right near the Emerald city. However it won' t be attached to flying monkeys. The 777X is the new magical bird with an all new wing, conceived in a purpose driven plans for world domination. It is rapidly gaining harrumph in Everett. Warning, the next harrumph is for Airbus. Mel Brooks, movie making mogul, would be proud of Boeing's corporate harrumphs in succession ( "Blazing Saddles" fame).

The folding, flexing and flying wing (FFFW) for those in need of a acronym has relocated to another building space. Or you could now call it the flying folding flexing Wing without losing track of the concept. Or go to the flexing, flying and folding after take-off and then landing. Otherwise FFFW makes you an expert no matter how you order the wing functions, just so the W is listed last, you become a Boeing wing type expert. From now on, I will refer to it as the folding, flexing and flying Wing on its third acronym permutation. Its easier to call it out as FFFW, then everybody is right and no one loses. All the FFFW needs is a big building number. A contest may have started to number the building. The number 42 is available and the letters "B" for bend it Beckem, or "W" for your flying monkey wings", are just flying rumors around the many buildings in Everett. Maybe an available EMC barn comes to mind. These are important issues remaining for the FFFW facilities!

A  large towing  engine would pull the wing out one door from its birthing and incubation facility to the extra large 777X production floor. Auto claves are needed for the large sections. Small  complimentary pieces could arrive from  suppliers like the flaps and leading edge components found on the Boeing 787 parts bin of suppliers. The main thing is the second largest part would move with normal equipment on hand. Perhaps even the main wing assembly fits comfortably on the 787 wing moving carts.

Since my seat is not on the board rather a very friendly confines on ones own Costco type chair. I guess with a digress. That Boeing is sewing together its plan, post haste, with its plan-in hand meeting by April. All contingencies and process for the "Facility" (FFFWF) will have final approvals available for the lead VP to sign off on. The FFFWF is now on for 2015. Those golden workers will achieve a miracle of joining the FFFW to the 777X. The program is growing on the factory floor, and becomes the FFFWF777X production sequence.  An Acronym that takes up the introductory paragraph of its white paper going up the chain of command. Eventually it is the goal of floor supervisors that it becomes a reality so they may, in production mode, initial below the mast head's work-order on the bottom line their own initials as it proceeds forward down the line. My own initials are used in this signature/production approval for the FFFWF777x-9-apb. The wing has now becomes a production reality in Everett, Wa. That wasn't hard at all, and Boeing could have avoided this whole mess of fishing for Red Herrings over the land and sea by just staying put to begin with, but they had to have its harrumph moments to justify who's boss once more.