Saturday, August 31, 2013

On December 11,2012 Winging It said, Watch Ethiopian Airlines For The Money!!!

December 11, 2012 Feature:

 

 Boeing 787 not profitable for another 9 years?



After reading this old Winging It link on LiftnDrag blog, the article goes on to state watch Ethiopian Airlines, because they are best positioned to take advantage of the 787 on its long legged routes. Little did I know, they would have one 787 catch on fire at London Heathrow, and benched it indefinitely until a resolution is found, or did I know they would increase its profitability by 178%, and recognize the 787 directly affecting the bottom line by so much! Even with its older aircraft inventory in play every day. If it sounds like crowing, then so be it, its crowing a little. I can't help but get a little excited on a long shot Airlines on a winning horse, The 787.

Article Quote: December 11, 2012

“Another look is for Ethiopian Airlines in what the 787 does for its bottom line.  They will be a good case study, since they own such a smaller number of aircraft and fly long routes. The 787 will have an immediate impact from its operations, where you will see how it drives the bottom line at the end of next fiscal year.  This is a manageable study of its business plan and bottom line. You may gain a distinct appreciation for the 787's financial impact on Ethiopian Airlines."

Today's Headline on Ethiopian Comparing comparing Last Years LiftnDrag Outlook: 

Ethiopian Airlines: Dreamlinerboosted profits


ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — Ethiopian Airlines has made a record profit, the company's chief executive officer said this week Tewolde Gebremariam partly credited the profitability of Ethiopian Airlines to Boeing's problematic 787 planes. He said the company's operating profit between July 2012 and June 2013 is 2.7 billion birr ($143,137,098) from a billion birr ($53,013,740) the previous financial year. Citing unaudited company accounts Tewolde said that the company's net profits also surged during the period to 2.03 billion birr ($107,617,892) from 734 million birr ($39,230,167) of the previous year, a 178 percent increase.




Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Winging It August 2013 Summary Report

August 1st   


Kudos Aspire Aviation On Its Boeing Report

SPECIAL REPORT: THE “ONE BOEING” LEAN & MEAN PROFIT MACHINE


I cannot offer a better or more composite offering than what "Aspire" has done with the Boeing report for this years aviation Juggernaut, The Boeing Company.  Even though I am a big fan of the journal, it has done a substantial review on my favorite Manufacturing giant. Without further ado I will post a couple of teasers and this headline link above, concerning the Boeing Machinery of profit.


No Matter What, The 787 Battery Has Become A Non Issue

I almost want, another 787 battery to act up in commercial operations. As grizzly or harsh that statement may sound, it is not a wish for passengers or airlines that it would want to experience such an event. It is my sincerest hope this does not happen on a commercial flight. "I almost", is best experienced on a test aircraft and not on an airline in service. Boeing needs to fly its test copy as often as possible with the fix. 

August 5,

Charleston Is Late To The Manufacturing Date

By now most people recognize one thing. Like a kids at the candy store, they can't move fast or they will drop the candy before they reach the store door door. Everett has it down after five years. They got figured out how to get out the jaw breakers from bouncing off the factory floor. The Puget Sound Business Journal, has brought to the attention of the Northwest region that Jobs are still a pretty good bet if you work in aviation.  The Charleston plant can't cut it when they need to push candy out the door.

August 6,

The 787-10 Is Not About The A-350, Its About Check Mate

The 787-10 move on aviation's chess  board is about check mating the regional and high density route potential, cornering the market. It is known as -10 to followers of aviation's progressions. This -10  will serve all the potential high density regions of the world such as China, Malaysia, and India. The aircraft will pack in customers Like South West Airlines does in the United States cross country routes but only with a larger scale than what Southwest offers. Instead of 160 seats on the 737 Max, serving 320 million US citizens from coast to coast. Boeing intends to send over the most efficient, high capacity capacity aircraft it can to 1.4 billion people from coast to the Himalayas. I see the relevant correlation plainly as a scale-like enhancement in the planet`s most densely populated  areas of the world.

August 8,

Boeing Likes Haggling A LOT

Boeing has a running dialogue with Poland's national carrier LOT Airlines for compensation for its four month grounding of the 787, during its earlier in the year 787 grounding. An action imposed on LOT at no fault to the operator.  It obviously cost them millions of US dollars for this disruption and the lost good faith, and other intrinsic values over the prior six months. LOT has a legitimated claim for compensation from the aircraft manufacturer. Boeing does not drive that compensation claim in a singular manner, by stating all customers claims have been resolved. It sounds like car insurance and a tree falling on your car.  You call your insurance agent explaining a tree crushed your car and they reply with a $500 dollar check and a Thank you very much, by saying all claims are settled.

August 10,

Is Eight Enough? or Should You Go Decked To The 9's

Jet Star Is Out on the Boeing play-ground with its 335 seat 787-8. I thought Ryan Air was Brilliant with its 291 seat pleasure pusher last month, but "Holy lumbar support Batman", Robin screeches as Jet Star will load the cord wood and sardines in workman like order on the Jet Star 787. Did you know the -9 will hold forty more passengers than the -8. It makes me wonder what comparison Boeing is using, a 200 seat ANA to a 240 Seat ANA or a 335 seat seat Jet Star to a 375 seat -9 Jet Star or Qantas.

August  12,


777-X: Jack The Giant Killer, Fuel Burn, And Other Weighty Matters

The fuel burn complexity of the 777-X has many components  under consideration for those who seek out its value.      If it reaches out and touches the world beyond 8,000 (sm), it will carry more dead weight in fuel at take-off to make the journey. Every aircraft made has the same problem. An exponential conundrum of fuel weight added for route mile required. The heavier the aircraft flies the more fuel weight it must store on-board in its flight travels.

August 12 Extra,


ROLLS HAS IT COVERED

The Rolls Royce engine: So much has the American press dedicated a more than generous reporting of the GE offering during the 787-8 introduction. No so much on the Rolls Royce. But customers are loving the engine just the same. I wondered what makes the Trent 1000 so special and how its made. Without divulging Rolls Royce engine secrets, a really informative article is offered from   "This Is Derby shire", on the link below. Please read the quoted article below or click over on the link the blog has inserted. A recommended read for those who are guessing at what is across the pond when comes to engine technology. The article suggest a very detailed process in making fuel efficient engines, as demonstrated, is not for the faint of heart for the captains of industry.  GE keeps pressure on with its "on-the- fly PIP (performance improvement package) process, squeezing more out each rendition of its own 1B or 2B 787 engines. They are competing by making sure it meets its original promise of performance, of which they have finally met during PIP 2. The question begged, "what has Rolls done during the GE's attempt to corner the market"? I say read on and judge for yourself.

August  14,

Retro Fitting The 737 NG vs. The Max

Scimitar Winglets are a Retrofit Of The Max's Advanced Winglets 

Awhile back a blog was presented quoting O'Leary, Ryan Air's sentiment relating to purchasing the Max. One Man's Rubbish Is Another Man's Feast(updated).

Now a clearer picture emerges. Is it possible to retrofit an NG to come closer to the Max? The article link, at the top suggest this possibility. 


History Is Found In The Heart Of Boeing, Eeverett

Boeing History Link via Boeing.com

Peruse on over to to the official link above, and read about Everett Washington and Boeing History.  You get a sense of purpose, dedication, and innovation for the last 60 years from the Everett Boeing works.


If Looks Could Kill Then Buy an F-35

This old war was fought and lost by the F-32 proposal of its ungainly and non traditional looking war bird. The Generals remarked, "How can that fly, it doesn't even  look like a war fighter. Its STOVL hasn't finished landing and take-offs for the Marines. Go with the Lockheed its looks like a 20th century fighter". Wait a minute we are in the 21st century looking for George Jetson.  The $200 billion aircraft is now ranked at $700 billion to succeed its mission without any guarantees of doing what the Generals thought it would do. Let's not dwell on fishing and just cut bait on this 20th century flying parts bin. What did the generals pass on in their war bird beauty pageant?


The Boeing Manufacturing Spider


Boeing maybe shifting  its manufacturing footprint for the 777-X. What if it links the Puget Sound area with short rail leads to Everett, for all large parts transit points that are within a day's ride to the Everett super factory. A continuity plan that undercuts using long shipping flights or shipping of large parts on container ship. A wing plant here and a body plant there could supply the Northwest for its legacy 777-X.

August  17,


Boeing 787 Is Growing Up Right Before Your Eyes

Boeing is moving forward with its 787. The three phases of success is moving forward as witnessed.

Phase 1: Lame

August 18,    Part II

The Boeing Manufacturing Spider Is Growing More Legs For The 777X

Just a few days ago it was noted on how Boeing will quickly implement its NW footprint for the manufacturer of its Legacy 777-X in the upcoming few years. Going over seas could take added time for a manufacturing role out and a delegation of inside capabilities for new technology could be lost to supplying  partners. The risk of out sourcing proprietary design for outside build partners is high.  At some point one may ask if Boeing can indeed build an aircraft any longer in a stand alone effort  in the Pacific Northwest.  That ship has sailed, but maintaining the ability of having major parts and pieces keeps Boeing building aircraft from engineering clear through the role out of an aircraft without it wondering how an overseas calamity breaking out in different parts of the world. Sinking the whole project into oblivion.


Big Order On The Lufthansa Front All Quiet For The Framers..

Nobody is talking about a 50 aircraft 10 billion dollar deal Lufthansa is crafting for its equipment enhancements. Because it has a predominant Airbus portfolio, it is interesting to watch this order. There are Boeing Aircraft in the stable. Particularly the 747-8i.  A harbinger of openness for mixed fleet and follow-on commonalities. The 787-10 has a relative short backlog for Boeing compared to the Airbus family of aircraft for the A-350, which has not rolled out to market as of yet, giving Boeing breathing room on the time line of delivery and providing, Lufthansa time to market after next months announcements.

August  23,

The 787 Phase II Testing Draws To A Close

Phase I: The engineers, assemblers and subcontractors  completed its tests in phase I years ago, and continue to test the aircraft throughout the phase II part which is now drawing to a close. Phase I consisted of the first 6 test models and its static model in the stress test. It was a proof of concept program that validated the whole idea of a plastic airplane and its feasibility in its own marketable class. This phase was completed well into 2010. Phase II began when ANA and Japan Airlines took delivery of its first Aircraft late in 2011. Marking the beginning of the customer test period or phase II.


737 Max Parsing Through The Single Aisle War

Reading through the Boeing.com press you sense how serious this business of building the single aisle market arises to a fever pitch. The buzz word of the year from Boeing is "discipline". The Max is not your brothers 787. The build process is disciplined, not ambiguous or a meandering onslaught of lessons learned that were found in the 787 project! The 737 Max is marching in lock step to 2017, so says the Boeing VP, Scott Fancher.


Decked To The Nines The 787 Has Come Out To Play

The long awaited and much anticipated 787-9 has come out to play at Paine Field. In full Boeing apparel, the 787-9 will take its super sleek tall model body out for flight testing soon. The factory promenade is complete and the press quickly copies  and paste the same information as if the 787-9 is on a press junket. The leads say the same thing. 250-290 passenger capacity when you know already that the 787-8 is capable of more than that number as Ryan Air and Jet Star will haul 291 and above with its smaller -8's. A fully comfortable -9 has flexibility to configure and keep its minion in travel party mode. It would not load to discomfort by making 290 tickets squeeze into a paper shredder at the boarding Jetway.

August 27th The Months Grande Finale  Blog


Air India, The Change Incorporation And Rework Business


No better relationship has developed than Boeing and Air India. One who has a back- log in the waiting, and the other who has a Government in the waiting. Change Incorporation has become the buzz word for both as they sort out early airplane builds. While the other sorts out its ability to build an airline business out its government. The metaphor is not lost on this partnership. Change Incorporation is the common theme.

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Air India, The Change Incorporation And Rework Business

No better relationship has developed than Boeing and Air India. One who has a back- log in the waiting, and the other who has a Government in the waiting. Change Incorporation has become the buzz word for both as they sort out early airplane builds. While the other sorts out its ability to build an airline business out its government. The metaphor is not lost on this partnership. Change Incorporation is the common theme.

Even though Air India could of have more 787 units flying than its recently delivered 8th Dreamliner. Change incorporation  status had helped both players. Change incorporation was born out of Boeing's necessary steps of making the "early builds" a viable flying machine. Translation, during the first 40 builds, redo's ran rampant as engineers tweaked the design while suppliers wrote back by asking for a "never mind" reprieve from earlier miscalculations, hence off to the The Change Incorporation Purgatory".  By the way purgatory was canceled by the last Pope.

Its a place where the few chosen ones can install years worth of upgrades, matching the build, LN 120 requirements, coming out those big 40-24 doors.  Boeing had an immense amount space available other than parking some early builds outside, way out into the rains, storing its backlog that have: design, parts and assembly flubs awaiting engines and the right stuff.  So it started the Change Incorporation and Rework Center (CIRC) aka: Everett Modification Center(EMC); for housing those 200 million $ a copy 787's, from curing out in the elements and moving them "in", for getting them into customer's hands at discounts. Forming a very complex Boeing discussion at the very least.

Royal Air Maroc gets a snow shovel for its aircraft-in-waiting.



Simultaneously, along comes an eager Air India who places a large early order of some 27 copies where it is in no condition of receiving 787 within a year's notice.

Boeing places a call to Air India saying, "we've got one ready".

Air India calls  back, "I don't know yet the Government hasn't told us  whether we can afford a delivery", or the money has to be in US dollars or Crore.

"The Not Ready For Prime Time Players", are in a quandary.

Boeing says,  "no worries we have CIRC, which is our hedge against delivery failures. We will just twiddle the inventory a little longer until the money, errrh, India's government is ready from bureaucratic levels".

Air India's early order turns out to be brilliant for both. It gave time to short out problems at both ends.  The "incompetence" and underestimations at both ends finds a win- win situation in change incorporation. Below is a chart highlighting 787 Blogger disposition of the 787, so I'll copy and paste over Boeing's first 40 frames current status relating to just Air India's status:

AI, "We've got you in line for the CIRC, so we can short out problems from both ends!"


Line\    Body  Serial   Tail\     Model Customer   Engine              Staus
LN25 ZA230 36273 VT-ANA 787-8 Air India GE GEnx-1B Change Incorporation and Re-Work Everett EMC Bay A Everett

LN26 ZA231 36274 VT-ANB 787-8 Air India GE GEnx-1B Change Incorporation and Re-Work Everett EMC Bay B Everett

LN29      ZA233 36278 VT-AND 787-8 Air India GE GEnx-1B Delivered Delivered Delivered Delivered 40755 41170 2nd Air India

LN28 ZA232 36279 VT-ANC 787-8 Air India GE GEnx-1B Change Incorporation and Re-Work Everett EMC Bay C Everett

LN32 ZA235 36275 VT-ANG 787-8 Air India GE GEnx-1B Pre-Flight Prep Everett Flightline Stall 118 Everett

LN30 ZA234 36280 VT-ANE 787-8 Air India GE GEnx-1B Pre-Flight Prep Everett EMC Position XC Everett

LN35 ZA236 36276 VT-ANH 787-8 Air India GE GEnx-1B Delivered Delivered Delivered Delivered 40933 41157 1st Air India Everett

A total of Seven Aircraft accounted for out of the first 40 builds from all of Boeing's 787 customers.

These aircraft represent about 25% of Air India's future fleet, some of which are now in service. The latest Boeing delivery was to ANA, LN120,  on August 21, 2013  as a reference point for Change Incorporation and Rework Bliss founded for AI (EMC  Hell for Boeing).  Out of this bunch two have been delivered and two are in a holding stage for testing, called Preflight Preparation. The other three are parked in the fog of upgrades and rework.

One Aircraft is Ready For Delivery but the expecting Father has not arrived from India to Paine Field. Something to due with problems with a "money order" or a cash machine pin number malfunction.

One more aircraft is in the long queue, way... back in line, standing on paper at a parts position LN158. So with Aircraft spread all over the map it allows time for Air India to spend time getting money, talking to the Government and advertising the anticipation of the next game changer. A perfect solution for Air India and more re-work room for Boeing to bury the 7-late-7 image. Coincidentally, AI has 7, late 7's listed above coming out of The Change Incorporation and Rework Center. There is meaning in numbers, at least with the number 7, and not being a part of the LN-terrible-teens (LN 13-19), is a good thing for AI.

Change Incorporation and Rework Center (or CIRC) is a most excellent adventure as in "Bill and Ted", who seem to always come out of a problem during time travel with a "Party On Dude " attitude. However, Boeing isn't doing it with an old phone booth they have air conditioning, and very big buildings to make its own time travel with an EMC twist for the shorter CIRC line from both ends.

Air India is willing and ready to delay the next delivery awaiting government approval, who would officially approve financing, only if it knew about time value for finances. What an excellent adventure for Air India as they try to Emulate More Competence (EMC)  through  the parody of Napoleon's Historical battles found in the European Market place, and not lose (Bill & Ted's, "Party On Dude War Cry").

All anyone needs to know at this time is that Air India ordered 27 Dream-Liners and...

  • AI has 8  Dreamliners
  • AI has 1 Dreamliner for delivery but waiting for something before taking it home.
  • Boeing has 2  Dreamliners in a preflight Gestation
  • Boeing has 1 Dreamliner on the parts wish list for AI, collecting parts.

Unless I missed the count (that's possible):

Totals 12 Dreamliners out of 27. Leaving 15 unaccounted for, at this time.

What  to expect:

787 Air India hulls will be out of Boeing's shorter CIRC court by years end, and will measure out its deliveries to Air India, when AI is really capable of induction (which kind of resembles a sucking sound). Rather than building aircraft because AI ordered first; Boeing can't afford the Financial change incorporation and rework of (FCIRC)...from its Air India partner, who happens to have its own Empty Monetary Currency (EMC) approach, once Boeing empties its own shorter CIRC and corporate named EMC of AI Equipment, it will build the AI fleet at a different pace.

Sunday, August 25, 2013

Decked To The Nines The 787 Has Come Out To Play

The long awaited and much anticipated 787-9 has come out to play at Paine Field. In full Boeing apparel, the 787-9 will take its super sleek tall model body out for flight testing soon. The factory promenade is complete and the press quickly copies  and paste the same information as if the 787-9 is on a press junket. The leads say the same thing. 250-290 passenger capacity when you know already that the 787-8 is capable of more than that number as Ryan Air and Jet Star will haul 291 and above with its smaller -8's. A fully comfortable -9 has flexibility to configure and keep its minion in travel party mode. It would not load to discomfort by making 290 tickets squeeze into a paper shredder at the boarding Jetway.

The problems, belong to the -8 not the -9. Why? The -9 is an elongated -8,  and the -9 will  be way advanced of the original build problems found in Ln 1-40 on the -8. It will incorporate the electrical protections and parts solutions  found through passenger and airline use the last two years. You could say this is the best-8 yet, only longer and more fuel efficient. Did I say more fuel efficient? Yes! More passengers and longer travel legs on the same fuel loads. You may want to refer to it as the perfected -8 only having a -9 attitude. This aircraft has attitude and will eventually surpass the -8 in numbers 10 years down the road, even though the -8 will be still flying off the shelf to its customers.

Now isn't this style of news writing better than repeating a list of problems at the top of a Boeing article every time you read something about the 787. Most articles begin with the year 2013 was a terrible year for Boeing, and then promptly list all the misses, malfunctions and mal-ware discoveries during 2013, before talking about what the news really is about regarding Boeing. Are we, as civilization, bent on hearing over and over again, about something as if we might learn something new by constant repetition from a news article? I won't insult anyone's intellect with repeat banter about faults, before writing about whats new.

Honest -9 Report

Time for a picture: Dave Parker Brown Shared Photo





There it is! Simple, clean and ready to play. The long wait for music and fuel is about over. I am expecting a fast matriculation to airports around the world. Air New Zealand is a short trip away from the Boeing's paint shop and interior furbishing center after its testing, before ANZ ramps up its hype machine.

All is needed is a short Jingle to make it official.. "The Boeing -9 is Ready To Shine".

Saturday, August 24, 2013

737 Max Parsing Through The Single Aisle War

Reading through the Boeing.com press you sense how serious this business of building the single aisle market arises to a fever pitch. The buzz word of the year from Boeing is "discipline". The Max is not your brothers 787. The build process is disciplined, not ambiguous or a meandering onslaught of lessons learned that were found in the 787 project! The 737 Max is marching in lock step to 2017, so says the Boeing VP, Scott Fancher.

"Through our disciplined development on the 737 MAX program, the team has retired key technology risks," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager, Airplane Development, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, during a briefing at the 2013 Paris Air Show. "We have informed our customers and they are pleased they will be able to put these more fuel-efficient airplanes in their fleets sooner than planned." 



Then Later, on July 23, this statement comes out by a different spokesperson off the same script.

"We have defined the design requirements for the 737 MAX that provide our customers with the most value in the single-aisle market," said Michael Teal, chief project engineer, 737 MAX, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "We continue to follow our disciplined process to ensure that we have completed all the requirements for the development stage of the program and are ready to begin the detailed design phase."  


The Takeaways from Boeing's scripting:



  • Discipline, discipline and discipline
  • Chopped off one quarter of time... 3rd  QTR 2017 because of our discipline.
  • 8% better than the NEO
  • For further details read on with the Blah Blah section.
  • Design Scope is now  frozen and design details are now under construction.
  • Design details will be completed before 2015. 

Parsing the word, "discipline", demonstrates the 737 Max is well beyond the bravado of the 787 process at this junction. Everything learned with the 787 can be installed onto the Max not requiring an agonizing process like the 787 experienced. Rather than adding on additional delay time in years like the 787, the Max discipline has  already removed 90 days of time, before the first test model. This A team is not in a learning school for the unknown, like the 787 team found out, but is a virtuoso of 737 Engineers, suppliers and aviation journeymen, using tools and materials they play with everyday. 

I would expect another quarter or two chopped off before the deed is done and an expecting framer to roll out a customer aircraft during the first quarter 2017. The Max innovation stays within the relevant range of proven technologies across the board, including newly proven 787 type technologies as Boeing levers lessons learned just paid for into the Max. That is why the Max Timeline will continue to shrink as it parleys  its vast resources into the Max without fear of a substantial set backs. This airplane should excite the customer base and balloon the customer orders in 2014 after the detail designs are fixed and suppliers retool its support. 


                                                  

Friday, August 23, 2013

The 787 Phase II Testing Draws To A Close

Phase I: The engineers, assemblers and subcontractors  completed its tests in phase I years ago, and continue to test the aircraft throughout the phase II part which is now drawing to a close. Phase I consisted of the first 6 test models and its static model in the stress test. It was a proof of concept program that validated the whole idea of a plastic airplane and its feasibility in its own marketable class. This phase was completed well into 2010. Phase II began when ANA and Japan Airlines took delivery of its first Aircraft late in 2011. Marking the beginning of the customer test period or phase II.

The period of time where customers who are not engineers, trained assembly staff and do not have the wealth of scope that subcontractors store for all the 787 millions of parts. The first 100 aircraft were originally proclaimed as a block point for assessing and improving from the proof of design, clear to unit number 100 entering service. A million or more passengers, a dozen or more airlines and millions of miles later, most of faults are flushed out, where the original test mode could have not discovered by the experts, only in operation mode by flight worthy 787's.

Only operational customers around the world could discover with its crews, maintenance procedures and its customers who merrily ply the sky-ways experimenting with the touch screens, cup holders and window shades in total ignorance of the technology. They enjoy the experience so much that the 787 is rated a top performer by its customers. Even though through battery fire and mishap it turns out to be a fine  airplane by an undaunted build number 100 entering into service.

Phase III: Refine the product from all lessons learned.

Now Boeing is striking forward with the -9. Build it like the best -8 off the line by adding all those lessons learned, and you have a world beater in the -9. Lufthansa is contemplating obtaining an Airbus A-350 or not, one A-350 that has not been tried by fire. They are looking at the 787 family, and how that would translate to the 777-X when fusing the excellent 777 performance with 787 milestones that are now part of Boeing's DNA for building advanced aircraft. Boeing definitely has the high-ground at this point over Airbus, but lacks the European loyalty towards Airbus. The question remains for Lufthansa board members. Can the Airbus come close to Boeing's offering in size economy and advancement? If so, then it will be a split order between the cheery pickings from both Boeing and Airbus.

However, if Boeing's demonstration in the sales room and shows Lufthansa the whole package, producing a reality for the 787-9, -10 and the 777-X plan in such a way, by retiring all roadblocks through water-under-the-bridge presentation from the 787-8 program, during these last two years. Then the enticement to buy is extremely strong. Lufthansa cannot afford developmental holdups from either framer. Boeing is much further down that road than Airbus is, at this time. Loyalty takes a back seat as Lufthansa  ponders its destiny with either framer.  A mixed order is a safe decision. Going all in with either Boeing or Airbus is a bold statement of changing Lufthansa fortunes and with a plan for the future.

If Boeing doesn't get the order for 50 wide bodies as an exclusive order, not all is lost in battle. Its only loyalty skirmish from Europe. If it remains a mixed fleet order it is a hedge bet by Lufthansa delaying what framer has the upper hand in Europe. How important is this order for Boeing ? As in very important. It would signal a Sea Change for European thinking that may spill over to Air France and other significant
carriers for that market. The Middle East carriers have infiltrated the European market from Qatar, Doha and other players. Air India is siphoning tickets from London Heathrow and Frankfurt Germany. Qatar is moving quickly with its 787 equipment into Europe. South East  Asia and China likes what it sees in the 787. A change is happening now at a rapid pace. How fast can Lufthansa get into the game with the right choice, is the lynch pin for Boeing sales push. By lining up its carriers that are invading Europe, can the A-350 stem the 787/777-X tide for Lufthansa?

That is a September 18, 2013 question! Now back to the Phase II customer testing thoughts, and the unit 100 block point. LN107 is the 100th customer made in sequence, shipping to ANA. Boeing has gone past this number with its-in-the-works frame at number LN138, and is only 21 frames away from the 100th delivery, since delivery of number 79 today to China Southern. Boeing has had a rolling improvement system, where any updating to 787 aircraft is  done on the fly, whether its in the factory, flight-line or in service. The bulk of customer trials are closing off leaving only the continuous improvement items to run into infinity. The engineers and plant  players are striving to beat the competition every day. Now the tricky question, What will Lufthansa do? I want a Sea Change Order go to Boeing, but will likely see a hedge order for both framers, because Lufthansa doesn't have solidarity in the board room. The board maybe split between visionary, and customer loyalty types. Exclusive order for Airbus opens Europe for its back door competitors. Such as all the above mentioned  players from the mid-east and India.

Thursday, August 22, 2013

Big Order On The Lufthansa Front All Quiet For The Framers..

Nobody is talking about a 50 aircraft 10 billion dollar deal Lufthansa is crafting for its equipment enhancements. Because it has a predominant Airbus portfolio, it is interesting to watch this order. There are Boeing Aircraft in the stable. Particularly the 747-8i.  A harbinger of openness for mixed fleet and follow-on commonalities. The 787-10 has a relative short backlog for Boeing compared to the Airbus family of aircraft for the A-350, which has not rolled out to market as of yet, giving Boeing breathing room on the time line of delivery and providing, Lufthansa time to market after next months announcements.

Lufthansa could build its order on the 787 family of aircraft as some slots could come available in each 787 model. Lufthansa could also replace A-330 with the 787 -800 in the next five years. They may see an opening for 2017 delivery time on 787 as well as 787-9's by then. Five years of planning is consistent with that large of an order locking in at 2013 prices and positioning itself for an inflationary future value on money. Once again the Boeing glitches are starting to fade, and Airbus has not sailed in that storm with its A-350. The hand is weighted in Airbus's future potential. But in 5 years its the A-330 and A-340 that will be a second tier aircraft. Lufthansa inventory will have aged its Airbus and Boeing inventory making this order strategically  significant. It definitely points to Lufthansa intent. Refer to the chart below of wide body inventory for Lufthansa.

Widebody Jets

Economy class

Aircraft with seatmap Seat Pitch Seat Width Seat Type Video Type Laptop Power Power Type Wi-Fi 
Airbus A330-300 (333) V131-32.017.5StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerNo
Airbus A330-300 (333) V231-32.017.5StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-300 (343) V13217.5StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerYes
Airbus A340-300 (343) V232.017.5StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerYes
Airbus A340-300 (343) V332.017.5StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-300 (343) V431-3217.3 - 19.3StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-600 (346) V131.017.0StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-600 (346) V23117StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerNo
Airbus A380-800 (388)31.017.0StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-400 (744) V131.017.5StandardPersonal TVNoneAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-400 (744) V231.017.5StandardShared TVNoneAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-8 (748) V13118.5StandardPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes
Boeing 747-8 (748) V23118.5StandardPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes

Business class

Aircraft with seatmap Seat Pitch Seat Width Seat Type Video Type Laptop Power Power Type Wi-Fi 
Airbus A330-300 (333) V164.020.0Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A330-300 (333) V257-60.020.0Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-300 (343) V157-6019.7Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes
Airbus A340-300 (343) V257-60.019.7Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes
Airbus A340-300 (343) V357-60.019.7Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-300 (343) V457-6020Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-600 (346) V157-60.020.0Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-600 (346) V257-6020Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A380-800 (388)57-60.019.6Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-400 (744) V157-60.019.7Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-400 (744) V257-60.019.7Angle Lie FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-8 (748) V17819.7-26.4Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes
Boeing 747-8 (748) V27819.7-26.4Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes

First class

Aircraft with seatmap Seat Pitch Seat Width Seat Type Video Type Laptop Power Power Type Wi-Fi 
Airbus A330-300 (333) V185.021.0Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A330-300 (333) V285.021.0Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-300 (343) V18521Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes
Airbus A340-300 (343) V285.021.0Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes
Airbus A340-600 (346) V185.021.0Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A340-600 (346) V28521Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Airbus A380-800 (388)90-92.031.5Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-400 (744) V190-92.021.0Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-400 (744) V290-92.021.0Lie-FlatPersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerNo
Boeing 747-8 (748) V18531.5Open SuitePersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes
Boeing 747-8 (748) V28531.5

Open SuitePersonal TVAll SeatsAC PowerYes

Analyze this wide body inventory and you could see how the A-330, A-340 inventory may retire with the 787 family coming while Airbus perfects its offering not even guaranteeing if could beat the 787. If Boeing continues with solid performance during this next month, a bird in hand axiom comes true that its worth more than two Airbus' A-350 in the field. Boeing threats are the 787-8,-9,-10 and most importantly the 777-X (-8,-9). The big clue is the numbers game. $Ten billion a rough number, fits right in at the 787 200 million list price for 50 aircraft depending on the order mix. My order book on ten billion go as follows: 15 787-8, 15 787-9, and 10 787-10's. Leaving 10 for the 777-X topping off the order at 10.5 billion for 50 Boeing. This is a fleet renewal order with the aircraft and the best aircraft.

 I can't get inside Lufthansa's head about this 50 plane order, but I do know Boeing's foot is in the door while Airbus is still seated in the main office. Unless Boeing has made its case through its customers who really like the 787 and are beating the socks of Airbus product through consumer polling found in travel magazines. Boeing is being rediscovered and people really like the ride.


Reference Article: 

Lufthansa to place $10 billion plane order next month - sources