Friday, October 4, 2013

Home Strech 2013, Predictions and Outcomes For Boeing

Like everything in this world, nothing is for certain, but comes from a predictive nature from just being focused on one topic and knowing what will happen to X when Y occurs. However, the unpredictable nature of "Y" greatly affects "X" outcomes. Outcomes in the finacial world is that observation of the "Y's"  affecting the "X" factors in aviation in hind sight. Here is a short list of X's verses the  outstanding yet to occur "Y's" that are Identified by this blog for Boeing's 4th Quarter that just began going until January 1st or until day one of 2014. That date will incapsulate the "X" factor for 2013, affected  by the "Y" timeline of uncertain factors,  applied with outcomes were money is invested upon. The deliveries mark production, progress, and promise. The "Y" factor are customer promises based on its perception of Boeing's dilivered promise. Confusing, unlessless a person breaks it down on these two  principals.

Delivery (or X) is the validation of the program, operations is the validation of that delivery.

Orders are based on "Y" issues such as delays, functionality failures, and unforeseen external issues of the customer. Example, uncefrtainty over the 787 grows into a sefious "Y" problem holding off the X process of delivery and increased satifaction and more orderss.

The two X factors are:

Boeing is reporting 170 commercial aircraft deliveries during the third-quarter, comprised of 112 737 NGs, four 747s, five 767s, 26 777s and 23 787s.
Boeing’s 170 deliveries represent an overall 14.1% increase in third-quarter deliveries for the company, compared to the year-ago quarter. Deliveries of 787s nearly doubled, and 737 deliveries increased by 9.8% year-over-year.
Among Boeing’s third-quarter deliveries to the world’s regions, 79 aircraft went to the Asia-Pacific region (53 to East Asia, 15 to Southeast Asia, five each to Oceania and South Asia, and one to Central Asia). Boeing said 44 aircraft went to North America; 24 went to Europe; 11 went to Africa/Middle East (nine to the Middle East, two to Africa); and 12 went to Latin America/Caribbean (nine to South America and three to Central America/Mexico).
China Southern Airlines took delivery of 13 aircraft, receiving nine 737-800s, two 777Fs and two 787-8s. American Airlines received eight 737-800s and one 777-300ER. United Airlines took delivery of six 737-900ERs and one 787-8
During the third-quarter, Boeing delivered 95 737-800s to 35 separate air carriers and lessors in 18 countries (China received 29 aircraft; the US took 25).
Of the 23 787 third-quarter deliveries, All Nippon Airways and Hainan Airlines each received three of the aircraft; British Airways, China Southern, Japan Airlines, Qatar Airways and lessor ILFC received two each; and Air India, Ethiopian Airlines, LAN Airlines, LOT Polish Airlines, Qantas, United and British leisure travel company TUI Travel PLC each took delivery of one Dreamliner.
  • End of 3rd quarter orders taken:   

  • Dubai announcements on the 777-X orders

    Welcome to the Dubai Airshow  

      Third Quarter 2013 Orders Detail (all box data from Boeing except SWAG)

    737747777787Total
    16621550233
    Notes of interest from LiftnDrag are the high number of 737 orders during a three month period. If you notice very few 777 were ordered during the 3rd quarter. This could signal a huge 777-X orders flowing in at Dubai. Note that Lufthansa commitment of 34 777-X are waiting to become signature orders at this time, changing from a commitment, and will not realize fruation until after Dubai. 15 orders for the 777 in 3rd quarter is way below the annual pace in recent years of nearing a hundred orders for the model type. The big announcement will be the 150 + frames for the 777-X at Dubai, add Lufthansa before the end of the year and there will be almost two hundred 777-X before the end of the year in fourth quarter. Hence, only 15 777's were ordered in 3rd quarter.

    The outlook  for the other wide bodies will be a hit and miss pace probably reaching out for a couple more 747-8's, and up to 15 more 787's. Fourth Quarter 737's should have one or two more surprises at the end of the year. There maybe another 100 orders for that type. In all, the order book could increase by 300 + by the end of the year for Boeing for all types.

    Other "Y" type unpredictables.
    • Max orders in total for 2013
    • Control of 787 Flying Fleet Fixing  (FFF Bombs)                                                                                                                                                                                                                   First Quarter 2013 Orders Detail

      737747777787Total
      15631942220
        2nd Quarter
      737            777787 Total
      520 10 40  570 
        3rd Quarter
      737
      747
      777
      787
      Total
      166
      2
      15
      50
      233
      Projecting the fourth Quarter SWAG
      737747777787Total
      100220015317
      * Total Four Quarter 2013 SWAG + YTD totals   (Simple Wild *** Guess)
      737747777787Total
      94292441471340
      *Winging IT Blue Sky Orders for 2013 Let's how close it is in January 2014