Monday, October 21, 2013

Etihad, Emirates, and EEggads Its A 777X Market

First pitch from the mound is the 34 "wants "from Lufthansa for 34, then comes Etihad's fast ball before the Dubai Air Show and finally its a slider in for strike three for Emirates. Will Qatar be left on deck because of the opening inning from Boeing's pitching in the next three weeks?

Blogging is a beautiful thing you can guess and write it out and watch the results. and then comment later as if you are talking to your self in a phone booth while on the beat. My phone both prognostications mixed with facts.

Lufthansa 34 777X actual commitments
Etihad        50 777X guess-work copies
Emirates   100 77X guess-work copies

Launch Guess work total 184 777x

(does not include options)

UAE's Etihad sets stage for $50 billion of jet deals from Gulf

The Reuters links always tries to temper its reporting with a European edge. They do introduce the reality of an Airbus presence at this Boeing party. 

Before Boeing even introduces the 777X at this party the attendees have been carrying on in the back board rooms for some years. This is the formal engagements party. No decent Arab power broker wants people to know whats going on until they have the spot light.

Aside from this astounding number, the Dubai meeting will hedge its bet with 25 or so A-350 for Emirates. It will be a Boeing date not an Airbus crashing the party event.

To further quote:

"If confirmed, Etihad's order could pre-empt a widely expected blockbuster deal for 100 or more 777X jets from rival Emirates Airline EMIRA.UL, which has said it may announce a large order when it hosts the Dubai Airshow next month. The deals are still under negotiation and could change in size and timing, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly. Boeing's European rival, Airbus (EAD.PA), is also competing for the business."

The uncertainty is,,, who gets the first step up to the microphone opportunity. Boeing keep your team in play and don't turn your back. There is another suitor hanging out. Be on time and be sharp. The late 787 and sloppy effort is still hanging in the air. A shower doesn't make people forget. I personally know this to be true.

A concluding argument would contain an unexpected event at Dubai, as in a surprise annoucement no one saw coming except the players. There could be another out of region announcement for the 777X or 787 in tandom. That may come from East of Dubai.