Friday, May 10, 2013

Seeing The Order Book Through Paris Sized Beer Goggles

Boeing has not reported much of late from its order book. I get the feeling they will pull a John Leahy special (ala Airbus), and announce solid sales for the 737 Max in a grand array of orders as seen through Boeing's beer goggles. What will be announced is a collected sum of orders representing months and years in the making, with an obligatory comment of, " Boeing only announces what our customers request during air shows." The reality is "Please let us announce your order through the Paris Air Show, and oh please and thank you. Plus, don't lose that sealed envelope I'm giving you as a bookmark for your notepad."

Enough of fantasy for the morning, back to speculating about sales.

The 737 Max and Friends (NG):

Some noise is out there leading up to the show:   Jet Airways to order 50 Boeing 737 Max planes: CAPA  

This is a sampler from today's press postings. Other blocks of 737 aircraft are circling for final approach at Le Bourget at this time. 

787-9's:

Even with 787 on the semi mend, from its teething woes, more orders will be forthcoming.  the -9's have started to roll and the 8's are on track to punch out at 7-10 a month. That alone makes me feel some new  sales announcements will stir some conversation. I would expect follow on orders from Boeing customers at the show or maybe a surprise order no one considered.  

The Big mystery is the 777X:

I would expect announcement of its Launch Customer(s) either one customer for each type of the 777x -8,-9 or one customer for both in one giant order. I also expect 150 orders of these aircraft at the show, when it hits the final tally board.

The great lady 747-800:

She still has a seat, even though it is considered a stop gap strategy; until the A380 settles her weight into select locations throughout the world. As freight increases, so does the 747-800 order book. Once the Airbus super Jumbo has maximized its footprint, the 747-800 will quietly slide into a jetway for the next 10 years with more orders. I don't believe Paris. this year, is for the Queen of the skies. She is getting ready for the home stretch run and the A380 well, is just the A380, where its own niche is closing soon, in the next two years. The 747-800 and the Airbus A380, both have its own niches. The market capacity will drive both its relative sales. 

If this were a horse race, The Max wins, 777X Places and 787 Shows.