Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Re: The ABC's of Drafting and Passing (updated)


Airbus, John Leahy, in 2nd place for 2012


Re: The ABC's of Drafting and Passing

To: The Sober Few:

From: liftndrag:

Date: January 1, 2013


Dark Horse Rising At Selected Airports

787's Design Of The Year Photo

For the last ten years Boeing has been in Airbus' marketing wake by playing second seat in sales and production. Airbus has boasted about having the title of "World's Largest" Airplane Framer", for a solid string of ten years. Boeing has been drafting behind Airbus to gain extra momentum, and is now making a pass on Airbus as if is beating Airbus to the race track finish line. One thing that is of interest to me on this game, there is no finish line! The final winner is the one who doesn't wreck, and while the other wrecks by ceasing its operations. A Genuine Grudge Match!

The ABc's
A =Airbus
B = Boeing
c =Comac (A late entry in the Airplane Race, receives a lower case c as well as all others)

Orders
20122011201020092008200720062005200420032002











Airbus585141957427177713417901055370284300












Boeing1203805530142662141310441002272239251













To have the title and bragging rights of "World Largest Airplane Framer", a Manufacturer must win both Sales, and Production in the form of contracted, but not option sales, and actual deliveries in a given year. Winning both Sales and Delivery is the Gold Trophy event. To split the categories only defaults title back to the prior year absolute Champion.  Boeing is about to embark on on a three year tear silencing the "Euro Bravado" for awhile, as the two giants wrestle one another. I'm so tired of these terms, "World's Largest Airplane, World's Largest Sales, and World's Largest Producer," as if that means, they are the World's best!  If found in second place, the framer will see a Red Ribbon.  Second place has a no John Leahy Bragging Points factor! If he brags in 2013, please disregard and move on.

However, and thankfully, that being Bigger is not some off-the-hull contrived way of speaking, and does not make a manufacturer, the best. Just BIG-ger ! If six inches bigger (XWB) is important, then I don't know... Some years the other guy received more cash, even when moving less product.

Deliveries
20122011201020092008200720062005200420032002











Airbus**516534510498483453434378320305303












Boeing601477462481375441398290285281381

             ** Final numbers are not in, but Boeing will lead when compiled for 2012.

Why a Bi-annual number? Relevant for capturing Works In Processes number changes, where final productions and Pending Sales are added  in a relevant range of time.  This Illustrates a broader reflection of activity within each affected company. I have not added Airbus numbers for December and have not closed its 2012 for its final numbers(with its goofy accounting system they alaways seem to do better in December for some unexplained reason). This will affect  and change the 10 Year Moving Average and the Bi-annual report, but will not change the outcome or winner of standalone numbers for 2012. Boeing wins 2012! But is gaining ground on two other trend categories listed, where Boeing still finds itself behind in those assessments.

Bi-annual Numbers are startlingly close when adding together the last two years:

Years 2011+2012  Added

                     Orders                Deliveries
**Airbus            2004                   1050
   Boeing           2008                   1078
            
Dual2012      201120102009200820072006200520042003











Airbus





** 
               















Boeing

 *
*

Boeing will win "The Worlds Largest Airplane Framer" (WLAF) Gold Trophy for 2012, when final numbers are compiled.  Congratulations, Boeing!


*John Leahy, Airbus's Sales Chief, retains Bragging rights in 2006 and 2007, even though Boeing out sold Airbus substantially. Boeing was second place during split years, and the world had to endure Leahy's bigger is better Mantra (Bravado) another 5 years.
Yellow Journalism     Envy

Below is a brief explanation of why I use a "Ten Year Moving Average" for total sales and deliveries. This tells the relative progress position for each aircraft framer in search of WLAF over the years, that gives you a general view of trend towards who's gaining and who's losing on the WLAF status:

1. Orders that are made ten years ago and should be delivered within that span of time.
2. Cancellations and changes for orders are caught up and corrected in a ten year cycle,
3. A trend can be establish easier by looking at bottom line numbers.  The last three years Airbus has a moving average lead, but that is beginning to erode away to Boeing.

Airbus's 10 Year Moving Average establishes a trend gap of Airbus over Boeing in orders/deliveries data. Boeing's over-all gap numbers, behind Airbus are as follows:  (2012) 56,(2011) 93, and (2010) 10.  Boeing owned the early part of the decade. By 2015 Boeing may pass Airbus on the Moving Average scale which sets a composite trend for both orders and deliveries. The trend is now dipping towards Boeing for gaining substantial ground, and is only a 56 behind Airbus in the moving average for 2012. Additionally when all numbers are finalized for 2012, an update will show a better trend of the order/delivery numbers setting a final gap for 2012. Another set of numbers, not pictured, is moving average of backlog, which would better identify how increased productivity will affect the resources for delivery of an aspiring World's Largest Aircraft Framer.


**The final votes are not counted at end of this 2012 year, but Boeing appears to win the "Booby Prize as World's Largest Aircraft Maker".  I hope Boeing doesn't follow Leahy's crass slogan of "World's Biggest Everything", or if Boeing does, they have to go back into training, and lose some more inches off its own Boeing posterior.

This will be a short Memorandum of (Little) Understanding from "liftndrag", as we drag ourselves into 2013.  I want to cheer up the few who endeavor to read this blog, and thank you for your early interest. Note I am familiar with Boeing, and a North American, where I have a bias for Boeing. Don't let that discourage anyone from reading or commenting. I invite everyone to comment on my mistakes, gaffs and ingnorance.  Please weigh-in on what you know, and point out stuff as you can. I can take a correction or two, as that is the way I like to learn.  Its hard for me to like Airbus because of that bias, but I try not to lambastes the Company because they have a lot of devoted, skilled and brilliant contributors to its aircraft. I admire them for pushing the envelope, and what you all bring to the table for aviation.  Please report in from time to time, because it adds to all the reader's enlightenment.  I feature Boeing, because I am closer to the source, and have friends who are well versed in what's going on, in their own public manner.  I have no top secret stuff here, just analysis, insight, and observations; from readings and statements.  All of you have a Happy New Year and enjoy any "Lift" I can give all the readers, and contributors this year. This is a blog, where No Dragging is Allowed!

cc: All your friends, associates, and enemies.