Thursday, November 22, 2012

Almost In With The Ten

Boeing's 787-10 is on track for a Christmas announcement of a commitment to launch. There are several significant suitors chasing the -10 dream.  So far, I have seen BA, Singapore Airlines and Qatar express keen interest in a 300 passenger 6700 mile aircraft.  BA expresses an interest for 60 and are in close talks for a delivery commitment in that range. Qatar wants to be Launch customer for Boeing on the -10. Singapore has geographic and business opportunity positioning in South East Asia.  A perfect fit for Singapore's location and market.

In a earlier post I mention a low end break-even number for the Boeing 787 program over-all, is about 150 orders for the -10 added to what is already booked for the 787 -8-9's. A Launch number would be in that range.  I have a feeling that Boeing wants a big splash number above 300 units committed by airlines, before Boeing will use the advantage of strong sales announcement in duo with an official production announcement. Call me crazy, but Boeing already has the 150 to meet break-even point and will announce launch, adding to the total 787 project. The -10 will push 787's over to profitability.  A 300 unit bang in the market would give Boeing a panache in sales, if it gets closer to 300 MOU's for the -10 at Christmas. Where will the additional 150 come from by Christmas?  There are some dark horses everyone has forgotten about.  Here is my short list, (Checked Twice) of Crazy sales for the second group of 150 units from nice customers.

Qantas -(off the naughty list) canceled 35 units earlier, when they really wanted 10's to begin with.  35 is its new order

New Zealand- will by "In with 10", units.

In Japan- the original launch customers will go for about:

ANA 20 units, They are airline Juggernauts

JAL   15 units

LAN for 5 units

United, likes a Hawaiian Christmas and the Caribbean for 15 units to haul these location for Christmas.

Air Canada for 6 units for a Coast to Coast Canada, and a Caribbean Christmas.

Air France for 5, just because, you know Carnival....

UAE 5-10 because they can...

Ethiopian 5 because they need to....

Air India    (not yet) Organized is a big word and India is not hooked on phonics.

LOT 5 Game planning for success, and is the ultimate European dark horse.

The trend here is customers already flying the -8 want the capacity of the -10. Those not flying yet, because of Boeing's late deliver schedules, are anxiously pacing the Boeing halls near the Big Factory doors with cigars in-hand, will start expanding their respective family's upon delivery.

Those who have not received its -8 or -9 yet want to evaluate first, after receiving its first load of 787-8's.

But you see, it wouldn't take very long for Boeing to get to 300, which is not the magic number. That number is when Boeing receives the first 150 batch of MOU's, from that group of three, the ones first mentioned at the top of the post.  Then Boeing will formally announce the 787-10 program for production and its Launch Customer, along with other premier customers. Pride is on the line for that honor of being the launch customer. Watch for BA, Singapore, and Qatar near the end of the year to be in the Christmas Package under Everett's Pine Trees.  Merry Christmas, Everyone and have a Happy New Year.